September 2016: When Will Fed Rates Rise, How Will Stocks Respond?
Wall Street Anxiously Waits. Federal Funds Rates Will Increase, But When?
By Larry C. Paxton
There were some big swings in the major US Stock Exchanges during September 2016. The NASDAQ showed the most variability with 13 days positive, 8 days negative and had only 9 trading days out of 21 that varied between a -0.50% to +0.50% change. The longest streaks also belonged with the NASDAQ with a 4 day win streak and all 3 had some 2 day loss streaks. September 9th experienced the biggest swing during the month with all 3 exchanges losing over 2% based on concern that the Federal Reserve would raise federal funds interest rates. The ongoing saga of the ups and downs of the oil markets continued to contribute some anxieties throughout the month as well.
It is still uncertain if the UK’s leaving the European Union, Brexit, will be soft or hard, the effect will be more dramatic for the EU countries, but there will also be some impact on the US economy and stocks.
The stock market also seems to also be taking a “wait and see” attitude on the contentious US presidential race as the candidates continue to roll out their economic plans which are then immediately attacked as horrible by both sides.
The PBR1000 companies in The Top 5 Tables continue to be spread across a wide variety of industries.
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The following partial tables are excerpts from The PBR1000 September Snapshots. The stock price is for the close of trading on September 30th, Month % Chg is compared to August 31st, YTD % Chg is compared to December 31, 2015, and the 21 Months % Chg is compared to December 31, 2014.
Table 1(S11): The PBR1000 Top 5 Month Stock Price % Gainers
Table 1 Summary: The range was +63.03% to -42.32%. 491 out of 1,000 stock prices were up 0.00% or more. The average was a gain of 0.18%, the median was a loss of 0.10%.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 09/30/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
21 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navistar |
264 | NAV | 22.89 | +63.03 | +158.94 | -31.63 |
| Conn’s |
906 | CONN | 10.32 | +51.99 | -56.03 | -44.78 |
| Scientific Games |
688 | SGMS | 11.27 | +36.61 | +25.64 | -11.47 |
| Liberty Media |
472 | LMCA | 28.65 | +33.88 | -27.01 | -18.77 |
| Cloud Peak Energy |
986 | CLD | 5.44 | +31.72 | +161.54 | -40.74 |
Table 2(S12): The PBR1000 Top 5 Year-To-Date Stock Price % Gainers
Table 2 Summary: The range was +270.25% to -99.01%. 661 out of 999 stock prices were up 0.00% or more. The average was a gain of 7.58%. The median was a gain of 9.13%.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 09/30/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
21 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliffs Natural Resources |
832 | CLF | 5.85 | +2.63 | +270.25 | -18.07 |
| Quad/Graphics | 479 | QUAD | 26.72 | -1.37 | +187.31 | +16.38 |
| Cloud Peak Energy |
986 | CLD | 5.44 | +31.72 | +161.54 | -40.75 |
| Navistar |
264 | NAV | 22.89 | +63.03 | +158.94 | -31.63 |
| Titan International |
946 | TWI | 10.12 | +10.12 | +156.85 | -4.80 |
Table 3(S13): The PBR1000 Top 5 20 Months Stock Price % Gainers
Table 3 Summary: Range was +241.75% to -99.74%. 471 out of 994 stock prices were up 0.00% or more. The average was a gain of 2.07%. The median was a loss of 1.24%.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 09/30/15 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
21 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA |
453 | NVDA | 68.52 | +11.71 | +107.89 | +241.75 |
| Amazon | 19 | AMZN | 837.31 | +8.86 | +23.88 | +169.80 |
| AMD | 533 | AMD | 6.91 | -6.62 | +140.77 | +158.80 |
| Activision Blizzard | 480 | ATVI | 44.30 | +7.08 | +14.44 | +119.85 |
| Insperity |
718 | NSP | 72.64 | +10.82 | +50.86 | +114.34 |
Table 4(S15): The PBR1000 Top 5 Market Capitalization
Table 4 Summary: Range was $609.16 billion to $0.00 billion. The average is $21.15 billion, median is $6.40 billion, out of 999 companies tracked.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Market Cap($B) 09/30/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
21 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple |
3 | AAPL | 609.16 | +6.55 | +3.80 | -5.91 |
| Alphabet |
35 | GOOG | 534.21 | +1.34 | +2.36 | +49.60 |
| Microsoft |
25 | MSFT | 448.85 | +0.24 | +1.28 | +17.22 |
| Amazon |
19 | AMZN | 396.95 | +8.86 | +25.29 | +176.34 |
| 147 | FB | 368.35 | +1.71 | +24.45 | +69.36 | |
| The PBR1000 |
21,132.84 | -0.17 | +5.16 | +3.03 |
Table 5: The PBR1000 Index & Selected Stock Exchanges/Commodities
| Company | Price 09/30/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
21 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The PBR1000 | 71,739.53 | +0.18 | +7.58 | +2.07 |
| DJIA | 18,308.15 | -0.50 | +5.07 | +2.72 |
| NASDAQ | 5,312.00 | +1.89 | +6.08 | +12.16 |
| S&P500 | 2,168.77 | -0.12 | +6.08 | +5.31 |
| GOLD | 1,318.80 | +0.44 | +24.39 | +11.30 |
| SILVER | 19.25 | +2.39 | +39.49 | +23.40 |
| OIL | 48.05 | +7.02 | +29.72 | -9.80 |
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