The Week 39 of 2021 US Stock Market News Recap

By Larry C. Paxton

US Stock Market Indices Summary
Week 39 of 2021 Ending 10/01/21
	DJIA	NASDAQ	S&P500
Previous Year Close(12/31/20)	30,606.48	12,888.28	3,756.07
Previous Quarter Close(09/30/21	33,843.92	14,448.58	4,307.54
Previous Month Close(09/30/21)	33,843.92	14,448.58	4,307.54
Record Close Date	08/16/21	09/07/21	09/02/21
Record Close	35,625.40	15,374.33	4,536.95
Week 38-Friday & Close(09/24/21)	34,798.00	15,047.70	4,455.48
Week 39-Monday(09/27/21)	34,869.37	14,969.97	4,443.11
Day Change	71.37	(77.73)	(12.37)
Day % Change	0.21%	-0.52%	-0.28%
Week 39-Tuesday(09/28/21)	34,299.99	14,546.68	4,352.63
Day Change	(569.38)	(423.29)	(90.48)
Day % Change	-1.63%	-2.83%	-2.04%
Week 39-Wednesday(09/29/21)	34,390.72	14,512.44	4,359.46
Day Change	90.73	(34.24)	6.83
Day % Change	0.26%	-0.24%	0.16%
Week 39-Thursday(09/30/21)	33,843.92	14,448.58	4,307.54
Day Change	(546.80)	(63.86)	(51.92)
Day % Change	-1.59%	-0.44%	-1.19%
Week 39-Friday & Close(10/01/21)	34,326.46	14,566.70	4,357.04
Day Change	482.54	118.12	49.50
Day % Change	1.43%	0.82%	1.15%
Change-Week	-471.54	-481.00	-98.44
% Change-Week	-1.36%	-3.20%	-2.21%
Change-Month-to-Date	482.54	118.12	49.50
% Change-Month-to-Date	1.43%	0.82%	1.15%
Change-Quarter-to-Date	482.54	118.12	49.50
% Change-Quarter-to-Date	1.43%	0.82%	1.15%
Change-Year-to-Date	3,719.98	1,678.42	600.97
% Change-Year-to-Date	12.15%	13.02%	16.00%
Change-Record	(1,298.94)	(807.63)	(179.91)
% Change-Record	-3.65%	-5.25%	-3.97%
The Stock Market Bull and Bear Tallies YTD
Week 39 Winner and Tally	Bear	3-0	Win
September Winner and Tally	Bear	3-0	Win
	Weeks	Months	YTD
The Stock Market Bull	17	5	Winning
The Stock Market Bear	14	1	Losing
Mixed Result	8	3
Totals	39	9

The US Stock Market Week 39 Summary:

The Stock Market Bear was miffed by his loss in Week 38. With determination he dominated the final 4 days of September taking 9 of 12 sessions, with Tuesday and Thursday being huge days. The Stock Market Bull responded with a big Friday to start the month of October, but it was not nearly enough. The Stock Market Bear easily takes Week 39 of 2021 with a 3-0 result. The stage is set for what could be a volatile October, with The Stock Market Bull still having a significant lead year-to-date.

Summary News Items for Week 39:

US Economic News

• Friday, October 1, 2021

• The US Dept of Commerce/BEA says the Preliminary August 2021 US Personal Income Annual Rate is at $20.717 trillion, July was at $20.681 trillion, June $20.449, trillion, August 2020 $19.624 trillion, August 2019 $18.688 trillion.
• The US Dept of Commerce/Census says the Preliminary August 2021 US Construction Spending Annual Rate-Residential is at $795.5 billion, Non-Residential $788.6 billion, making the August 2021 US Construction Spending Annual Rate Total at $1,584.1 billion, July was at $1,584.0 billion, June $1,579.3 billion, August 2020 $1,455.0 billion, August 2019 $1,379.0 billion.
• The Institute for Supply Management says the September 2021 US Manufacturing PMI Index(>50% = economy expanding) is at +61.1%, August was at +59.9%, July +59.5%, September 2020 +55.4%, September 2019 +47.8%. “… optimistic panel sentiment remains strong, with three positive growth comments for every cautious comment. Panelists are fully focused on supply chain issues in order to respond to the ongoing high levels of demand….”
• IHS Markit says the September 2021 US Manufacturing PMI Index is at 60.7, August 2021 was at 61.1, July 2021 63.4, September 2020 53.2, September 2019 51.1. “The US manufacturing sector continues to run hot, with demand once again racing well ahead of production capacity as firms report widespread issues with supply chains and the availability of labor.”
• The U of Michigan Final September 2021 US Consumer Sentiment Index is at 72.8, August 2021 was at 70.3, July 2021 81.2, September 2020 80.4, September 2019 93.2. “Consumer sentiment edged upward in late September, although the overall gain still meant the continuation of depressed optimism, initially sparked by the Delta variant and supported by persistent inflation and unfavorable long-term prospects for the national economy….”

• Thursday, September 30, 2021

• The US Dept of the Treasury says on 09/28/21 the US National Debt-Public is at $22.264 trillion, Intragovernmental $6.163 trillion, making the 09/28/21 US National Debt Total at $28.427 trillion, 08/31/21 was at $28.428 trillion, 07/30/21 $28.428 trillion, 09/30/20 $27.027 trillion, 09/30/19 $22.719 trillion.
• The US Dept of Commerce/BEA says the 3rd Estimate 2Q21 US Real Gross Domestic Product Annual Rate is at +6.7% with the 2Q21 Annual GDP at $22.741 trillion, 1Q21 was at $22.038, 4Q20 $21.478 trillion, 2Q20 $19.477, 2Q19 $21.330 trillion.
• The US Dept of Labor says the 09/25/21 US 4-Week Moving Average Initial Unemployment Claims is at 340,000, 08/21/21 was at 366,500, 07/24/21 394,500, 09/19/20 878,250, 09/21/19 212,000.
• FreddieMac says the 09/30/21 US Average 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is at 3.01% with 0.7 points & fees, 08/26/21 was at 2.87%, 07/29/21 2.80%, 09/24/21 2.90%, 09/24/20 2.90%, 09/26/19 3.64%. “We expect mortgage rates to continue to rise modestly which will likely have an impact on home prices, causing them to moderate slightly after increasing over the last year.”
• The American Automobile Assn says on 09/30/21 the US Average Price for a Gallon of Regular Gas is at $3.189, 08/31/21 was at $3.159, 07/30/21 $3.168, 09/30/20 $2.188, 09/30/19 $2.654.
• MNI Indicators says the Preliminary September 2021 Chicago Business Barometer Index(>50=economy is gaining) is at 64.7, August was at 66.8, July 73.4, September 2020 62.4, September 2019 47.1.

• Wednesday, September 29, 2021

• The US Energy Information Administration says the 09/24/21 US Crude Oil Inventories-Millions of Barrels is at 418.5, 08/20/21 was at 432.6, 07/23/21 435.6, 09/25/20 492.4, 09/20/19 419.5.
• Automotive News says the Forecasted September 2021 New Auto Sales-Retail Units is at 899,072, Fleet Units 108,324, making September 2021 New Auto Sales Total Units at 1,007,396, August was at 1,095,323, July 1,291,775, September 2020 1,351,643, September 2019 1,268,871; September 2021 Average New Auto Sales Price is at $39,540, August was at $38,580, September 2020 $36,710.

• Tuesday, September 28, 2021

• The US Dept of Commerce/BEA says the Preliminary 2Q21 US Net International Investment Position-Assets is at $34.196 trillion, Liabilities $49.316 trillion, making the 2Q21 US Net International Investment Position Deficit at $15.120 trillion, 1Q21 was at $14.301 trillion, 4Q20 $14.011 trillion, 2Q20 $12.996 trillion, 2Q19 $10.488 trillion.
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Preliminary July 2021 US National Home Price Index(01/2000=100) is at 265.35, June was at 261.11, May 255.53, July 2020 221.67, July 2019 211.47; July 2021 12 Month Change is +19.7%.
• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond says the Preliminary September 2021 US 5th District Manufacturing Index(Annualized) is at -3%, August was at +9%, July +27%, September 2020 +21%, September 2019 -9%. “Firms reported weakening local business conditions, but they were optimistic that conditions would improve in the next six months.”
• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond says the Preliminary September 2021 US 5th District Services Sector Revenue Index(Annualized) is at -3%, August was at +15%, July +19%, September 2020 +6%, September 2019 +6%. “Survey respondents were optimistic that conditions would improve in the coming months.”
• The Conference Board says the Preliminary September 2021 US Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100) is at 109.3, August was at 115.2. “Consumer confidence is still high by historical levels—enough to support further growth in the near-term—but the Index has now fallen 19.6 points from the recent peak of 128.9 reached in June. These back-to-back declines suggest consumers have grown more cautious and are likely to curtail spending going forward.”

• Monday, September 27, 2021

• No economic news releases today.

US Government/Other News

• The US House of Representatives struggles with the $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill, and it appears it could be cut back substantially to around $1.5 trillion in order to pass. US President Biden continues to push for the full amount saying it needs to be approved to remain competitive in the world. US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi says she expects a version to pass by the end of October.
• US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen warns that the US could default on paying its bills, including social security benefits, and force a government shutdown that could result in a deep recession if the US Congress does not pass an increase in the debt ceiling by October 18.
• The US Senate and House pass a spending bill that will take it through December 3, 2021.
• China growth forecasts are cut per recent economic reports.
• Japan has a new prime minister, its 100th, Fumio Kishida, who confirms that Japan’s alliance with the US remains strong.
• North Korea fires another missile test.

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