The Week 48 of 2021 US Stock Market News Recap

By Larry C. Paxton

The US Stock Market Week 48 Summary:

It was a back and forth Week 48 with The Stock Market Bull charging out of the gate on Monday and having a big day. The Stock Market Bear took it personally and came out slashing on Tuesday and overtook the Bull’s lead, thanks to the announcement of a new COVID-19 variant, named Omicron, and also Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s comments on possible Fed monetary policy changes regarding its tapering program and raising interest rates on short federal short term funds. This moved forward into Wednesday where more blood was shed in the markets. The Stock Market Bull struck back on Thursday, but more was still needed to catch up to the losses. The Stock Market Bear closed out the week with additional information on the variant, Fed policy options, and a below US employment situation report. Chalk up Week 48 of 2021 to The Stock Market Bear who gets a complete 3-0 win.

US Stock Market Indices Summary
Week 48 of 2021 Ending 12/03/21
	DJIA	NASDAQ	S&P500
Previous Year Close(12/31/20)	30,606.48	12,888.28	3,756.07
Previous Quarter Close(09/30/21	33,843.92	14,448.58	4,307.54
Previous Month Close(11/30/21)	34,483.72	15,537.69	4,567.00
Record Close Date	11/08/21	11/19/21	11/18/21
Record Close	36,432.22	16,057.44	4,704.54
Week 47-Friday & Close(11/26/21)	34,899.34	15,491.66	4,594.62
Week 48-Monday(11/29/21)	35,135.94	15,782.83	4,655.27
Day Change	236.60	291.17	60.65
Day % Change	0.68%	1.88%	1.32%
Week 48-Tuesday(11/30/21)	34,483.72	15,537.69	4,567.00
Day Change	(652.22)	(245.14)	(88.27)
Day % Change	-1.86%	-1.55%	-1.90%
Week 48-Wednesday(12/01/21)	34,022.04	15,254.05	4,513.04
Day Change	(461.68)	(283.64)	(53.96)
Day % Change	-1.34%	-1.83%	-1.18%
Week 48-Thursday(12/02/21, Holiday)	34,639.79	15,381.32	4,577.10
Day Change	617.75	127.27	64.06
Day % Change	1.82%	0.83%	1.42%
Week 48-Friday & Close(12/03/21)	34,580.08	15,085.47	4,538.43
Day Change	(59.71)	(295.85)	(38.67)
Day % Change	-0.17%	-1.92%	-0.84%
Change-Week	-319.26	-406.19	-56.19
% Change-Week	-0.91%	-2.62%	-1.22%
Change-Month-to-Date	96.36	(452.22)	(28.57)
% Change-Month-to-Date	0.28%	-2.91%	-0.63%
Change-Quarter-to-Date	736.16	636.89	230.89
% Change-Quarter-to-Date	2.18%	4.41%	5.36%
Change-Year-to-Date	3,973.60	2,197.19	782.36
% Change-Year-to-Date	12.98%	17.05%	20.83%
Change-Record	(1,852.14)	(971.97)	(166.11)
% Change-Record	-5.08%	-6.05%	-3.53%
The Stock Market Bull and Bear Tallies 2021 YTD
Week 48 Winner and Tally	Bear	3-0	Win
November Winner and Tally	Bear	2-1	Mixed Win
	Weeks	Months	YTD
The Stock Market Bull	22	6	Winning
The Stock Market Bear	17	1	Losing
Mixed Result	9	4
Totals	48	11

Summary News Items for Week 48:

US Economic News

• Friday, December 3, 2021

• The US Dept of Labor says the November 2021 Number of People Available for the Labor Force is at 162,052,000, Number of People Employed is at 155,175,000, Unemployed 6,877,000, for an Unemployment Rate of 4.2%, October 2021 was at 4.6%, September 2021 4.8%, November 2020 6.7%, November 2019 3.4%.
• The US Dept of Commerce/Census says the Preliminary October 2021 US Manufacturers New Orders-Durables is at $261.5 billion, Non-Durables $261.9, for October 2021 US Manufacturers New Orders Total at $523.4 billion, September was at $513.2 billion, August $508.2 billion, October 2020 $463.2 billion, October 2019 $472.4 billion.
• The Institute for Supply Management says the November 2021 US Services PMI Index(>50% economy expanding) is at 69.1%, a new record high, October was at 66.7%, September 61.9%, November 2020 55.9%, November 2019 53.9%. “… Demand continues to outpace supply that has been impacted by capacity constraints, shortages of labor and materials, and logistical challenges. This has also caused demand-pull inflation that is affecting overall business conditions.”
• The IHS Markit November 2021 US Composite PMI Output Index is at 57.2, October was at 57.6, September 55.0, November 2020 58.6, November 2019 52.0. “While business expectations for the year ahead rose in November, the vast majority of the survey data were collected prior to the news of the Omicron variant, which casts a renewed shadow of uncertainty over the outlook for business and poses a downside risk to near-term growth prospects.“

• Thursday, December 2, 2021

• ***No economic news releases today.

• Wednesday, December 1, 2021

• The US Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book summary of the 12 districts for data through 11/19/21. Summary: “Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Federal Reserve Districts during October and early November. Several Districts noted that despite strong demand, growth was constrained by supply chain disruptions and labor shortages….”
• ADP says the Preliminary November 2021 US Monthly Change in US Employment-Small Businesses(1-49 Employees) is at +115,000, Mid-Sized(50-499) +142,000, Large-Sized(500 or more) +277,000, making the November 2021 US Monthly Change in US Employment Total at +534,000, October was at +571,000, September +568,000, November 2020 307,000, November 2019 +67,000. “November’s job gains bring the three month average to 543,000 monthly jobs added, a modest uptick from the job pace earlier this year. Job gains have eclipsed 15 million since the recovery began, though 5 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. Service providers, which are more vulnerable to the pandemic, have dominated job gains this year. It’s too early to tell if the Omicron variant could potentially slow the jobs recovery in coming months.”
• The US Dept of Commerce/Census says the Preliminary October 2021 US New Construction Spending Annual Rate-Residential is at $783.9 billion, Non-Residential $814.2 billion, making October 2021 US New Construction Spending Annual Rate Total at $1,598.0 billion, September was at $1,594.8 billion, August $1,596.8 billion, October 2020 $1,471.7 billion, October 2019 $1,386.8 billion.
• The Institute for Supply Management says the November 2021 Manufacturing PMI Index(>50% economy is growing) is at 61.1%, October was at 60.8%, September 61.1%, November 2020 57.5%, November 2019 48.1%. “… panel sentiment remains strongly optimistic, with 10 positive growth comments for every cautious comment. Panelists remain focused on the importance of improving supply chain issues to respond to ongoing high levels of demand.”
• The IHS Markit November 2021 US Manufacturing PMI Index is at 58.3, October was at 58.4, September 60.7, November 2020 56.7, November 2019 52.6. “Broad swathes of US manufacturing remain hamstrung by supply chain bottlenecks and difficulties filling staff vacancies. Although November brought some signs of supply chain problems easing slightly to the lowest recorded for six months, widespread shortages of inputs meant production growth was again severely constrained….”

• Tuesday, November 30, 2021

• The US Dept of the Treasury says on 11/26/21 the US National Debt-Public is at $22.649 trillion, Intragovernmental $6.260, making the 11/26/21 US National Debt Total at $28.909 trillion, 10/29/21 was also at $28.909 trillion, 09/30 21 $28.429 trillion, 11/30/20 $27.446 trillion, 11/29/19 $23.076 trillion.
• The Conference Board says the Preliminary November 2021 US Confident Index(1985=100) is at 109.5, October was at 111.6, September 109.8, November 2020 92.9, November 2019 126.8. “… The Conference Board expects this to be a good holiday season for retailers and confidence levels suggest the economic expansion will continue into early 2022. However, both confidence and spending will likely face headwinds from rising prices and a potential resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming months.”
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Preliminary September 2021 US National Home Price Index(01/2000=100) is at 271.18, +19.51% from 12 months ago, August was at +19.79%, July +19.69%, September 2020 +7.03%, September 2019 +3.12%. “We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven by households’ reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents simply an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years, or reflects a secular change in locational preferences. September’s report is consistent with either explanation.”
• The American Automobile Assn says the 11/30/21 US Average Price for a Gallon of Regular Gas is at $3.390, 10/29/21 was at $3.401, 09/30/21 $3.189, 11/30/20 $2.127, 11/29/19 $2.587. “It’s too soon to tell if fears of a global economic slowdown caused by the Omicron variant will push oil prices lower for the long term… But for now, the upward pricing pressure due to tightened supply and high demand seems to have abated, and that will likely result in pump prices stabilizing.”
• MNI Indicators/ISM Chicago reports that the November 2021 Chicago Business Barometer(>50 gaining) is at 61.8, October was at 68.4, September 64.7, November 2020 58.2, November 2019 46.3. “… the lowest reading since February, driven by a slow-down in new orders.”
• The US Dept of the Treasury says the 11/30/21 Closing Yield on a 10 Year Treasury Note is at 1.43%, 10/29/21 was at 1.55%, 09/30/21 1.52%, 11/30/20 0.84%, 11/29/19 1.78%.
• The 11/30/21 Settlement Price for an Ounce of Gold is at $1,776.50, 10/29/21 was at $1,784.40, 09/30/21 $1,757.00, 11/30/20 $1,780.90, 11/29/19 $1,472.70.
• On 11/30/21 the Price of a Bitcoin is at $57,368, 10/29/21 was at $62,339, 09/30/21 $43,725, 11/30/20 $13,243, 11/29/19 $6,559.

• Monday, November 29, 2021

• ***No economic news releases.

US Government/Other News

• US President Biden signs into law a bill to fund the federal government through February 18, 2022. Congress will next address a debt limit increase bill.
• The Omnicron COVID-19 variant starts to appear in the US, health organizations encourage people to be vaccinated, now includes newly approved boosters. US President Biden says no shutdowns or lockdowns will be implemented.
• Online shoppers spent $33.9 billion from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, down 1.4% according to Adobe Analytics, also saying that people were concerned about supply logistics, had already made advanced purchases.
• The US government announces a significant increase in Medicare Part B premiums starting in 2022.
• The November US jobs report comes in lower than expected.

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