July 2017: Overvalued? The Answer is: Yes…No…Maybe!
By Larry C. Paxton
The 2nd half of 2017 got off to a roaring start with all stocks/commodities indices up significantly. At the same time all segments of the economy continued to show only modest to moderate growth, and nothing could be classified as anywhere near robust. The stock market recovery has lasted several years now without any major adjustment, which itself is a rarity.
So, what gives?
More and more investment professionals say a downward correction is imminent, that investors need to retreat to bonds, look at international equity investment opportunities, preserve cash in low interest yield funds, or maybe buy into gold or real estate. Then others say that the stock exchanges are still significantly undervalued because innovations, especially in technology, are driving forces that are increasing value. Certainly Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, and others demonstrate that.
As shown in the summary tables below, it might be true that large cap companies are overvalued and the opportunities are in mid to small cap companies.
There are the unknown factors such as an apparent volatile, chaotic, and leaky White House, directionless House and Senate legislative bodies who can’t seem to get anything going, a press that enjoys reporting on and feeding controversy, and external forces such as the threats of North Korea, continued unrest in the Middle East, tension with Russia, and issues such as Brexit in Europe.
However, as The PBR1000 has demonstrated for several years now, there are always short term and long term investment opportunities, it takes some work to discern the next round of winners, and maybe even a little luck, but they are there and just have to be mined for you to come up with the golden nuggets, using excellent proven tools like The PBR1000!
Here are the July summaries on the major US stock exchanges:
Number of Trading Days: 20
Number of Gain(+)/Loss(-) Days: DJIA 12+/8-; NASDAQ 14+/6-; SPX 11+/9-.
Record Days: DJIA 8, NASDAQ 6, SPX 5
Longest Gain Streak(Consecutive Days): DJIA 5, NASDAQ 10, SPX 3
Longest Loss Streak(Consecutive Days): DJIA 3, NASDAQ 3, SPX 3(2x)
Big Swing Up Days(>1.00%): 2, 07/07/17: NASDAQ, +1.04%, Tech shares rebound, Jobs report; 07/12/17: NASDAQ, +1.10%, Tech rebound, Beige Book released.
Big Swing Down Days(<-1.00%): 1, 07/06/17: NASDAQ, -1.00%, Day after N Korea ICBM test.
The following are Top 5 partial tables excerpts from The PBR1000 July Snapshots. The price for stocks is for the close of trading on July 31, Month % Chg is compared to June 30, YTD % Chg is compared to December 31, 2016, and the 19 Months % Chg is compared to December 31, 2015. The PBR Rank is by annual revenues.
To get the complete The PBR1000 Snapshots just click here to get your 2 month or significantly discounted 13 month subscription and automatically download the July 2017 edition with the complete 15 Snapshots.
Table 1(S11): The PBR1000 Top 5 Month Stock Price % Gainers
Table 1 Summary: The range was +43% to -28%. 529 out of 1,004 stocks were up 0% or more. The average was a gain of 1.7%, the median was a gain of 1.1%.
Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 07/31/17 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
19 Mos % Chg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NRG Energy |
220 | NRG | 24.62 | +43 | +101 | +109 |
Scientific Games |
690 | SGMS | 37.05 | +42 | +165 | +313 |
ArcBest |
708 | ARCB | 27.80 | +35 | +1 | +30 |
Bon-Ton Stores |
715 | BONT | 0.56 | +28 | -62 | -73 |
Tronox |
821 | TROX | 19.38 | +28 | +88 | +396 |
Table 2(S12): The PBR1000 Top 5 Year-To-Date Stock Price % Gainers
Table 2 Summary: The range was +213% to -73%. 631 out of 1,002 stocks were up 0% or more. The average was a gain of 10.2%, the median was a gain of 6.3%.
Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 07/31/17 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
19 Mos % Chg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Weight Watchers |
987 | WTW | 35.82 | +7 | +213 | +57 |
Scientific Games |
690 | SGMS | 37.05 | +42 | +165 | +313 |
Restoration Hardware |
812 | RH | 65.13 | +1 | +112 | -18 |
Systemax |
899 | SYX | 18.12 | -4 | +107 | +111 |
Vertex Pharmaceutical | 894 | VRTX | 151.82 | +18 | +106 | +21 |
Table 3(S13): The PBR1000 Top 5 18 Months Stock Price % Gainers
Table 3 Summary: The range was +396% to -90%. 735 out of 1,000 stocks were up 0% or more. The average was a gain of 23.3%. The median was a gain of 20.9%.
Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 07/31/17 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
19 Mos % Chg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tronox | 821 | TROX | 19.38 | +28 | +88 | +396 |
NVIDIA |
363 | NVDA | 162.51 | +12 | +52 | +393 |
Cliffs Natural Resources | 817 | CLF |
7.72 | +12 | -8 | +389 |
AMD | 523 | AMD | 13.61 | +9 | +20 | +374 |
Scientific Games |
690 | SGMS | 37.05 | +42 | +165 | +313 |
Table 4(S15): The PBR1000 Top 5 Market Capitalization
Table 4 Summary: The range was $775.45 billion to $0.01 billion. The average is $23.8 billion, median is $7.2 billion, out of 1,004 companies.
Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Market Cap($B) 07/31/17 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
19 Mos % Chg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Apple |
4 | AAPL | 775.45 | +3 | +26 | +32 |
Alphabet |
27 | GOOG | 644.72 | +3 | +21 | +24 |
Microsoft |
29 | MSFT | 560.37 | +5 | +16 | +26 |
94 | FB | 491.54 | +12 | +48 | +66 | |
Amazon | 12 | AMZN | 474.51 | +3 | +33 | +50 |
The PBR1000 |
23,938.54 | +2 | +9 | +19 |
Table 5: The PBR1000 Index & Selected Stock Exchanges/Commodities
Company | Price 07/31/17 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
19 Mos % Chg |
---|---|---|---|---|
The PBR1000 | 81,450.53 | +1.7 | +10.2 | +23.3 |
DJIA | 21,891.12 | +2.5 | +10.8 | +25.6 |
NASDAQ | 6,348.12 | +3.4 | +17.9 | +26.8 |
S&P500 | 2,470.30 | +1.9 | +10.3 | +20.9 |
GOLD | 1,273.40 | +2.6 | +10.6 | +20.1 |
SILVER | 16.80 | +1.0 | +5.0 | +21.7 |
OIL | 50.17 | +8.3 | -6.6 | +35.5 |
Have questions on The PBR1000 or The PBR US Economic Indices Monthly Snapshots? Please contact us at Sales@PBRMarketTools.com or call us in the US at 520-282-4100.
Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @ThePBR1000.
(The PBR1000 provides astute investors and business professionals with the data, news, and analysis for taking higher probability of success actions. The PBR1000 covers over 1,000 of the largest publicly held companies with principle or administrative headquarters in the US. These companies generate $13 trillion in annual worldwide revenues, more than all other companies in the US combined. These are the key drivers in the US and world economies. On a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis several analytical reports in customizable Microsoft Excel format are provided to Subscribers of The PBR1000. Subscribers include C-level executives, entrepreneurs, sales/marketing/advertising professionals, investors/investment advisers, business professors/students, career counselors/job seekers, to name just a few. To order your monthly or significantly discounted annual subscription, just click here to go to the PBRMarketTools.com Order page.)
(Image courtesy of FreeDigitalPhotos.net, sira anamwong.)