The PBR1000 July 2017 Stocks/Commodities Snapshots

July 2017: Overvalued? The Answer is: Yes…No…Maybe!

 

By Larry C. Paxton

The 2nd half of 2017 got off to a roaring start with all stocks/commodities indices up significantly. At the same time all segments of the economy continued to show only modest to moderate growth, and nothing could be classified as anywhere near robust. The stock market recovery has lasted several years now without any major adjustment, which itself is a rarity.

So, what gives?

More and more investment professionals say a downward correction is imminent, that investors need to retreat to bonds, look at international equity investment opportunities, preserve cash in low interest yield funds, or maybe buy into gold or real estate. Then others say that the stock exchanges are still significantly undervalued because innovations, especially in technology, are driving forces that are increasing value. Certainly Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, and others demonstrate that.

As shown in the summary tables below, it might be true that large cap companies are overvalued and the opportunities are in mid to small cap companies.

There are the unknown factors such as an apparent volatile, chaotic, and leaky White House, directionless House and Senate legislative bodies who can’t seem to get anything going, a press that enjoys reporting on and feeding controversy, and external forces such as the threats of North Korea, continued unrest in the Middle East, tension with Russia, and issues such as Brexit in Europe. 

However, as The PBR1000 has demonstrated for several years now, there are always short term and long term investment opportunities, it takes some work to discern the next round of winners, and maybe even a little luck, but they are there and just have to be mined for you to come up with the golden nuggets, using excellent proven tools like The PBR1000!

Here are the July summaries on the major US stock exchanges:

Number of Trading Days: 20

Number of Gain(+)/Loss(-) Days: DJIA 12+/8-; NASDAQ 14+/6-; SPX 11+/9-.

Record Days: DJIA 8, NASDAQ 6, SPX 5

Longest Gain Streak(Consecutive Days): DJIA 5, NASDAQ 10, SPX 3

Longest Loss Streak(Consecutive Days): DJIA 3, NASDAQ 3, SPX 3(2x)

Big Swing Up Days(>1.00%): 2, 07/07/17: NASDAQ, +1.04%, Tech shares rebound, Jobs report; 07/12/17: NASDAQ, +1.10%, Tech rebound, Beige Book released.

Big Swing Down Days(<-1.00%): 1, 07/06/17: NASDAQ, -1.00%, Day after N Korea ICBM test.

The following are Top 5 partial tables excerpts from The PBR1000 July Snapshots. The price for stocks is for the close of trading on July 31, Month % Chg is compared to June 30, YTD % Chg is compared to December 31, 2016, and the 19 Months % Chg is compared to December 31, 2015. The PBR Rank is by annual revenues.

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Table 1(S11): The PBR1000 Top 5 Month Stock Price % Gainers

Table 1 Summary: The range was +43% to -28%. 529 out of 1,004 stocks were up 0% or more. The average was a gain of 1.7%, the median was a gain of 1.1%.

Company	PBR Rank	Symbol	Price 07/31/17	Mo % Chg	YTD % Chg	19 Mos % Chg
NRG Energy	220	NRG	24.62	+43	+101	+109
Scientific Games	690	SGMS	37.05	+42	+165	+313
ArcBest	708	ARCB	27.80	+35	+1	+30
Bon-Ton Stores	715	BONT	0.56	+28	-62	-73
Tronox	821	TROX	19.38	+28	+88	+396

Table 2(S12): The PBR1000 Top 5 Year-To-Date Stock Price % Gainers

Table 2 Summary: The range was +213% to -73%. 631 out of 1,002 stocks were up 0% or more. The average was a gain of 10.2%, the median was a gain of 6.3%.

Company	PBR Rank	Symbol	Price 07/31/17	Mo % Chg	YTD % Chg	19 Mos % Chg
Weight Watchers	987	WTW	35.82	+7	+213	+57
Scientific Games	690	SGMS	37.05	+42	+165	+313
Restoration Hardware	812	RH	65.13	+1	+112	-18
Systemax	899	SYX	18.12	-4	+107	+111
Vertex Pharmaceutical	894	VRTX	151.82	+18	+106	+21

Table 3(S13): The PBR1000 Top 5 18 Months Stock Price % Gainers

Table 3 Summary: The range was +396% to -90%. 735 out of 1,000 stocks were up 0% or more. The average was a gain of 23.3%. The median was a gain of 20.9%.

Company	PBR Rank	Symbol	Price 07/31/17	Mo % Chg	YTD % Chg	19 Mos % Chg
Tronox	821	TROX	19.38	+28	+88	+396
NVIDIA	363	NVDA	162.51	+12	+52	+393
Cliffs Natural Resources	817	CLF	7.72	+12	-8	+389
AMD	523	AMD	13.61	+9	+20	+374
Scientific Games	690	SGMS	37.05	+42	+165	+313

Table 4(S15): The PBR1000 Top 5 Market Capitalization

Table 4 Summary: The range was $775.45 billion to $0.01 billion. The average is $23.8 billion, median is $7.2 billion, out of 1,004 companies.

Company	PBR Rank	Symbol	Market Cap($B) 07/31/17	Mo % Chg	YTD % Chg	19 Mos % Chg
Apple	4	AAPL	775.45	+3	+26	+32
Alphabet	27	GOOG	644.72	+3	+21	+24
Microsoft	29	MSFT	560.37	+5	+16	+26
Facebook	94	FB	491.54	+12	+48	+66
Amazon	12	AMZN	474.51	+3	+33	+50
The PBR1000			23,938.54	+2	+9	+19

Table 5: The PBR1000 Index & Selected Stock Exchanges/Commodities

Company	Price 07/31/17	Mo % Chg	YTD % Chg	19 Mos % Chg
The PBR1000	81,450.53	+1.7	+10.2	+23.3
DJIA	21,891.12	+2.5	+10.8	+25.6
NASDAQ	6,348.12	+3.4	+17.9	+26.8
S&P500	2,470.30	+1.9	+10.3	+20.9
GOLD	1,273.40	+2.6	+10.6	+20.1
SILVER	16.80	+1.0	+5.0	+21.7
OIL	50.17	+8.3	-6.6	+35.5

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