November 2016: The Surprise Trump Bump
The Trump Bump has been a nice Christmas gift for stock investors.
By Larry C. Paxton
The first part of November continued the downward trend of the last week of October for the US stock exchanges. The US presidential race was taking its toll on the public and investors with two very unpopular candidates leading the charge by lobbing huge questionable accusations at each other and making seemingly impossible promises.
As if in a sigh of relief that it was about to be over all 3 major US stock exchanges recorded a 2+% gain the day before the election. The day of the election there was a .4-.5% gain. As polls closed and results tallied the improbable path to victory for Donald J Trump became a reality, and we now have elected our 45th US President. The next day there was another upward spike of over 1%, then mostly positive and record days during the rest of the month.
Here are some November summaries on the US stock exchanges:
Number of Trading Days: 21
Number of Gain(+)/Loss(-) Days: DJIA 14+, 7-; NASDAQ 15+, 6-; SPX 11+, 10-.
Record Days: DJIA 8, NASDAQ 3, SPX 4
Gain Streaks: DJIA 7, NASDAQ 3, SPX 4
Loss Streaks: DJIA 7(includes 3 days from October), NASDAQ 9(includes 5 from October), SPX 9(includes 5 from October)
Big Swing Up Days: 11/07/16(day before election), 11/09/16(day after election)
Big Swing Down Days: Streak of 7-9 down days in late October/early November before the election, 11/28/16(Monday after Thanksgiving Weekend with Black Friday shopping day)
The following are Top 5 partial tables excerpts from The PBR1000 November Snapshots. The stock price is for the close of trading on November 30th, Month % Chg is compared to October 31st, YTD % Chg is compared to December 31, 2015, and the 23 Months % Chg is compared to December 31, 2014.
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Table 1(S11): The PBR1000 Top 5 Month Stock Price % Gainers
Table 1 Summary: The range was +175% to -41%. 764 out of 1,000 stock prices were up 0.00% or more. The average was a gain of 6.45%, the median was a gain of 7.42%.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 11/30/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
23 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FreddieMac |
43 | FMCC | 4.40 | +175 | +172 | +114 |
| FannieMae |
18 | FNMA | 4.49 | +164 | +174 | +118 |
| AK Steel |
353 | AKS | 9.13 | +76 | +308 | +54 |
| US Steel |
229 | X | 32.34 | +67 | +305 | +21 |
| Cliffs Natural Resources |
830 | CLF | 8.81 | +60 | +458 | +23 |
Table 2(S12): The PBR1000 Top 5 Year-To-Date Stock Price % Gainers
Table 2 Summary: The range was +458% to -80%. 715 out of 1,000 stock prices were up 0.00% or more. The average was a gain of 11.0%. The median was a gain of 12.2%.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 11/31/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
23 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliffs Natural Resources |
830 | CLF | 8.81 | +60 | +458 | +23 |
| AK Steel |
353 | AKS | 9.13 | +76 | +308 | +54 |
| US Steel |
229 | X | 32.34 | +67 | +305 | +21 |
| Navistar |
264 | NAV | 30.76 | +38 | +248 | -8 |
| SunCoke Energy |
949 | SXC | 11.42 | +12 | +229 | -41 |
Table 3(S13): The PBR1000 Top 5 23 Months Stock Price % Gainers
Table 3 Summary: Range was +360% to -90%. 555 out of 1,000 stock prices were up 0.00% or more. The average was a gain of 5.2%. The median was a gain of 4.1%.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 11/30/15 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
23 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA |
452 | NVDA | 92.20 | +30 | +180 | +360 |
| AMD | 533 | AMD | 8.91 | +23 | +210 | +234 |
| SkyWest | 634 | SKYW |
36.85 | +22 | +94 | +177 |
| Amazon | 20 | AMZN | 750.57 | -5 | +11 | +142 |
| Netflix |
350 | NFLX | 117.00 | -6 | +2 | +140 |
Table 4(S15): The PBR1000 Top 5 Market Capitalization
Table 4 Summary: Range was $589.33 billion to $0.00 billion. The average is $21.46 billion, median is $6.90 billion, out of 1,000 companies tracked.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Market Cap($B) 11/30/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
23 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple |
3 | AAPL | 589.33 | -2.7 | +0.4 | -8.8 |
| Alphabet |
34 | GOOG | 522.47 | -3.4 | +0.1 | +46.3 |
| Microsoft |
31 | MSFT | 468.54 | +0.6 | +5.7 | +22.4 |
| Berkshire Hathaway |
148 | BRK | 388.83 | +9.5 | +19.5 | +7.5 |
| ExxonMobil | 20 | XOM | 362.01 | +4.8 | +4.8 | -7.5 |
| The PBR1000 |
21,459.34 | +3.9 | +6.8 | +4.6 |
Table 5: The PBR1000 Index & Selected Stock Exchanges/Commodities
| Company | Price 11/30/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
23 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The PBR1000 | 73,677.40 | +6.5 | +11.0 | +5.2 |
| DJIA | 19,123.58 | +5.4 | +9.8 | +7.3 |
| NASDAQ | 5,323.68 | +2.6 | +6.3 | +12.4 |
| S&P500 | 2,198.81 | +3.4 | +7.6 | +6.8 |
| GOLD | 1,173.90 | -8.1 | +10.7 | -0.9 |
| SILVER | 16.48 | -8.0 | +19.4 | +5.6 |
| OIL | 49.44 | +5.3 | +33.5 | -7.2 |
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