The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks April 2021 12 Month Report Card
The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks 12 Month Report Card for April, 2021, gets an ‘D+’ for falling short of its forecast, but exceeding all three major US stock indices.
By Larry C. Paxton
Welcome to The April 2021 The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks 12 Month Report Card.
As investors we count on professional stock analysts to provide comprehensive and diligent research to come up with their best take on how stocks will perform over the next 12 months. We then use that information to help us make stock buy, hold and sell decisions.
The PBR25 Premise
The premise of The PBR25 is that there is a high probability of success for investing in stocks when a large enough number professional stock analysts through their extensive research determine that a stock is a “Buy” and also forecasts a significant return over the next 12 months. PBRMarketTools assigns a Report Card grade based on how the professional stock analysts did.
Last 12 Months Influences
It is difficult to forecast a result with much accuracy over a 12 month period. For example, the 12 month period included the invasion of Ukraine by Russia starting February 24, 2022, which no one predicted 12 months earlier. The COVID-19 pandemic also continued with new variants causing havoc throughout the 12 months, with the total US death toll approaching one million over the two plus years of the pandemic. The effects created a lot of unemployment, affected many economic sectors like hospitality and travel services, closed schools, forced people to work from home, and much more. But there has also been a significant recovery as societies continue to try to regain a sense of “normalcy.” Inflation rates skyrocketed, but were expected to be transitory. However, the high levels have continued, and the US Federal Reserve is has started increasing short term interest rates. There also continues to be the aftermath of a very contentious 2020 US Presidential and general election process, which also created a lot of confusion and strife, with the major action being the attack on the US Capital Building on January 6, 2021. 12 months later The US House of Representatives continues to actively pursue investigations and convictions of people involved as the 2022 midterm elections come into play. There are a lot more factors, but this is not meant to be an opinions post. It is a piece focused on the review of the recommendations stock analysts came up with at the end of April 2021 and the actual results 12 months later at the end of April 2022. PBRMarketTools is calling this a Report Card.
For this April 2021 Report Card we used stock data and forecasts from April 30, 2021, and compare it to the actual results on April 29, 2022.
Creating The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks List for April 2021
The starting point is the prestigious The PBR1000 US Public Companies, produced monthly by PBRMarketTools. To be included in The PBR1000 the 1,000 companies must meet the following criteria:
- The companies must be publicly traded on the NYSE, NYSE American or NASDAQ stock exchanges, with a very few temporarily trading on the Over-The-Counter market because they are transitioning from bankruptcy.
- They must be headquartered in the US or have primary operations in the US.
- They must have generated at least $1 billion in revenues in their most recent full fiscal year.
- They must file an annual 10-K form with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in US dollars
- Each of the 1,000 companies is given a primary ranking based on revenues, with the company having the highest revenue amount ranked 1(currently Walmart). There are 27 secondary rankings in The PBR1000 based on other criteria as well.
Each month the 12 month estimates and recommendations by stock analysts are updated on The PBR1000. The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks list for April 2021 was then created using the following process:
- At any point in time The PBR1000 has around 15,000 stock analyst recommendations.
- The PBR1000 is sorted several times to come up with The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks, made up of stocks that are rated a “Buy” by analysts, have a 12 Month Forecasted % Change of at least +20%, have at least 15 “Buy” recommendations, and be profitable in their latest fiscal year.
Actual Results for The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks for April 2021
- No companies on the list were acquired or merged during the 12 month period.
- CoStar Group of The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks for April 2021 did a 10:1 stock split in June, 2021, so data was altered to reflect that for this report.
Following is a table of characteristics and 12 month actual results for the The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks on April 30, 2021, which we are calling the April 2021 report card.
The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks 12 Month Report Card |
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04/30/21 Forecast vs 04/29/22 Actual |
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| Stock | 12 Month | 12 Month | ||
| Price | Forecast on | Actual | ||
| 04/30/21 | 04/30/21 | 04/29/22 | ||
| Lowest Stock Price: ET | 8.61 | 11.67 | 11.08 | |
| Price Change | 3.06 | 2.47 | ||
| Percent Change | 35.54% | 28.69% | ||
| Highest Stock Price: NOW | 506.37 | 618.53 | 478.10 | |
| Price Change | 112.16 | (28.27) | ||
| Percent Change | 22.15% | -5.58% | ||
| Lowest Actual Change: WISH | 13.87 | 26.36 | 1.70 | |
| Price Change | (12.17) | |||
| Percent Change | -87.74% | |||
| Highest Actual Change: DVN | 23.38 | 30.81 | 58.17 | |
| Price Change | 34.79 | |||
| Percent Change | 148.80% | |||
| Total Stock Prices | 2,803.73 | 3,571.32 | 2,809.57 | |
| Price Change | 767.59 | 5.84 | ||
| Percent Change | 27.38% | 0.21% | ||
| DJIA | 33,874.85 | 32,977.21 | ||
| Price Change | (897.64) | |||
| Percent Change | -2.65% | |||
| NASDAQ | 13,962.68 | 12,334.64 | ||
| Price Change | (1,628.04) | |||
| Percent Change | -11.66% | |||
| S&P500 | 4,181.17 | 4,131.93 | ||
| Price Change | (49.24) | |||
| Percent Change | -1.18% | |||
| Total Exceeding Forecast(Out of 25) | 6 | |||
| Total With At Least +20% Actual Return | 8 | |||
| Total >0% Actual Return | 12 | |||
Conclusions, Observations, Validations and Realities
- If you had bought 1 share each of The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks at the closing price on April 30, 2021, $2,803.73, you would have achieved a +0.21% gain 12 months later at the close on April 29, 2022, $2,809.57, significantly less than the+27.38% forecast of $3,571.32, historically a less than average 12 month return, much below the 12 month forecast, which was above the returns on the DJIA, NASDAQ, and the S&P500 indices. For this reason The April 2021 The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks gets a ‘D+’ on its 12 month Report Card, only because it did have a positive return and exceeded all 3 major US stock indices.
- It is difficult to forecast out 12 months with any great accuracy, there are just too many variables and uncertainties.
- However, it does demonstrate that The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks is a valid methodology and process for that particular month.
- One of our demonstration accounts, The Charlie Fund, uses the popular “Dollar Cost Averaging Investment Strategy” with the monthly The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks as the primary research tool. For the 12 Month Report Card period it achieved a greater than 30% return, a further validation of the methodology.
- There are no guarantees! The reality is that there will always be ups and downs in the stock market and people make stocks buy, hold and sell decisions based on a wide range of logical and emotional criteria, input from knowledgeable hard-working experts and well meaning friends, and if the sky is blue today. But the historical data is pretty convincing that stocks will trend up at an above average investment rate over the long haul.
Additional Information
- The details of this summary, including company names and the over 200 fields of information for each company, were extracted from the updated The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks MS-Excel worksheet for April 2022, and has been distributed to The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks Subscribers for their personal use and further research
- The next 12 Month Report Card will be for May 2021, and should be available early to mid June, 2022.
- For characteristics of the most recent monthly The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks go to The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks information page.
The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks 12 Month Report Cards |
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Last 12 Months Summary |
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| 12 Month | ||||
| Stock Price | Stock Price | 12 Month | 12 Month | |
| Report Card Month | Forecast Date | Actual Date | Forecast | Actual |
| May 2020 | 05/29/20 | 05/28/21 | 9.89% | 37.80% |
| June 2020 | 07/02/20 | 07/02/21 | 30.88% | 47.08% |
| July 2020 | 07/30/20 | 07/31/21 | 33.61% | 37.77% |
| August 2020 | 09/01/20 | 08/31/21 | 32.85% | 40.79% |
| September 2020 | 10/02/20 | 09/30/21 | 27.68% | 52.82% |
| October 2020 | 10/30/20 | 10/29/21 | 26.43% | 23.22% |
| October 2020 w/o AMZN | 10/30/20 | 10/29/21 | 27.49% | 35.49% |
| November 2020 | 11/30/20 | 11/30/21 | 21.41% | 18.30% |
| November 2020 w/o AMZN | 11/30/20 | 11/30/21 | 22.02% | 27.45% |
| December 2020 | 12/31/20 | 12/31/21 | 19.19% | 13.17% |
| December 2020 w/o AMZN | 12/31/20 | 12/31/21 | 21.15% | 25.22% |
| January 2021 | 01/29/21 | 01/31/22 | 27.04% | 27.27% |
| February 2021 | 02/26/21 | 02/28/22 | 30.00% | 3.22% |
| February 2021 w/o AMZN | 02/26/21 | 02/28/22 | 29.31% | 6.62% |
| March 2021 | 04/01/21 | 03/31/22 | 27.24% | 7.70% |
| March 2021 w/o AMZN | 04/01/21 | 03/31/22 | 27.31% | 11.40% |
| April 2021 | 04/30/21 | 04/29/22 | 27.38% | 0.21% |
| Average | 26.13% | 25.78% | ||
| Average w/o AMZN | 26.38% | 29.16% | ||
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PBRMarketTools.com provides The PBR1000, a compilation of 1,000 of the largest publicly held companies with primary operations in the US. These companies generate over $17 trillion in annual revenues, more than all other US companies combined. The PBR1000 Monthly Snapshots provides these 1,000 companies in Excel format, includes 15 worksheets with 28 rankings, over 200 data/information points, hotlinks to key data, and important news items per company. The monthly The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks is a subset of the monthly The PBR1000 and is available as a separate monthly or annual subscription.
Disclaimers: The PBR1000 is compiled from a variety of publicly available resources. As such, PBRMarketTools.com is not responsible for the data itself. Any liability for the representations or decisions based on the data is solely the responsibility of the authorized user, not PBRMarketTools.com, its employees or affiliates. PBRMarketTools.com is an independent business intelligence service providing news, data, and analysis. It is not a financial advisory or stock brokerage firm and has no affiliation with such organizations. Any research or opinions expressed should not be regarded as recommendations or advice.
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