The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks October 2020 12 Month Report Card
The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks 12 Month Report Card for October 2020 gets a ‘D’ unless you want to make just one change, which would then get it an ‘A’ grade!
By Larry C. Paxton
Welcome to The October 2020 The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks 12 Month Report Card.
As investors we count on professional stock analysts to provide comprehensive and diligent research to come up with their best take on how stocks will perform over the next 12 months. We then use that information to help us make stock buy, hold and sell decisions.
The PBR25 Premise
The premise of The PBR25 is that there is a high probability of success for investing in stocks when a large enough number professional stock analysts through their extensive research determine that a stock is a “Buy” and also forecasts a significant return over the next 12 months. PBRMarketTools assigns a Report Card grade based on how the professional stock analysts did.
Last 12 Months Influences
It is difficult to forecast a result with much accuracy over a 12 month period. For example, the primary impact in October 2020 continued to be the COVID-19 pandemic. The world, including the US, was deep into the COVID-19 pandemic, which created a lot of unemployment, affected many economic sectors like hospitality and travel services, closed schools, forced people to work from home, and much more. It was also the last full month of a very contentious US Presidential election process. There are a lot more factors, but this is not meant to be an opinions post. It is a piece focused on the review of the recommendations stock analysts came up with at the end of October 2020 and the actual results 12 months later at the end of October 2021. PBRMarketTools is calling this a Report Card.
For this October 2020 Report Card we used stock data and forecasts from October 30, 2020, and compare it to the actual results on October 29, 2021.
Creating The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks List for October 2020
The starting point is the prestigious The PBR1000 US Public Companies, produced monthly by PBRMarketTools. To be included in The PBR1000 the 1,000 companies must meet the following criteria:
- The companies must be publicly traded on the NYSE, NYSE American or NASDAQ stock exchanges, with a very few temporarily trading on the Over-The-Counter market because they are transitioning from bankruptcy.
- They must be headquartered in the US or have primary operations in the US.
- They must have generated at least $1 billion in revenues in their most recent full fiscal year.
- They must file an annual 10-K form with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in US dollars
- Each of the 1,000 companies is given a primary ranking based on revenues, with the company having the highest revenue amount ranked 1(currently Walmart). There are 27 secondary rankings in The PBR1000 based on other criteria as well.
Each month the 12 month estimates and recommendations by stock analysts are updated on The PBR1000. The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks list for October 2020 was then created using the following process:
- At any point in time The PBR1000 has around 15,000 stock analyst recommendations.
- The PBR1000 is sorted several times to come up with The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks, made up of stocks that are rated a “Buy” by analysts, have a 12 Month Targeted % Change of at least +20%, and have at least 10 “Buy” recommendations.
Actual Results for The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks for October 2021
- None of The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks for October 2020 companies were acquired, and none did a stock split, so no data was altered for this report.
Following is a table of characteristics and 12 month actual results for the The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks on October 30, 2020, which we are calling the October 2020 report card.
The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks on 10/30/20 |
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12 Month Report Card on 10/29/21 |
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| Total Companies | 25 | ||
| Low Weighted Avg | 4.51 | ||
| High Weighted Avg | 4.81 | ||
| Average Weighted Avg | 4.63 | ||
| Market Capitalization Low($B) | 29.40 | ||
| Market Capitalization High($B) | 1,608.36 | ||
| Total Market Capitalization($B) | 5,862.67 | ||
| Total NYSE Companies | 18 | ||
| Total NASDAQ Companies | 7 | ||
| 12 Month | 12 Month | ||
| Forecast for | Actual | ||
| 10/30/20 | 10/29/21 | 10/29/21 | |
| Low Stock Price-EPD | 16.57 | 24.26 | 22.68 |
| High Stock Price-AMZN | 3,036.15 | 3,803.53 | 3,372.43 |
| Total Stock Prices | 6,041.17 | 7,637.67 | 7,444.00 |
| Total Stock Price Change | 1,596.50 | 1,402.83 | |
| Percent Change | 26.43% | 23.22% | |
| Total Stock Prices w/o AMZN | 3,005.02 | 3,834.14 | 4,071.57 |
| Total Stock Price Change w/o AMZN | 829.12 | 1,066.55 | |
| Percent Change w/o AMZN | 27.59% | 35.49% | |
| DJIA Percent Change | 27.71% | ||
| NASDAQ Percent Change | 32.41% | ||
| S&P500 Change | 31.73% | ||
| Lowest Change | 20.07% | -11.12% | |
| Highest Change | 62.16% | 174.53% | |
| Total Exceeding Forecast(Out of 25) | 13 | ||
| Total with >0% Return | 23 | ||
Conclusions, Observations, Validations and Realities
- If you had bought 1 share each of The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks at the closing price on October 30, 2020, you would have achieved a +23.22% gain 12 months later at the close on October 29, 2021, less than the 26.43% estimate, a good return, but below the 12 month forecast and below the returns on the DJIA, NASDAQ, and S&P500 indices. For this reason The October 2020 The PBR25 gets a ‘D’ on its 12 month Report Card.
- On the other hand, the Amazon(AMZN) stock price was over half the total of 25 stocks, it forecasted a 25.27% return, actual was 11.8%. If you take out AMZN the results would have been a forecast of a 27.59% gain, actual would have been 35.49%, which would have exceeded the forecast and over returns on the DJIA, NASDAQ, and S&P500 indices. The October 2020 12 Month Report Card would have then been an ‘A’ grade.
- It is difficult to forecast out 12 months with any great accuracy, there are just too many variables and uncertainties.
- However, it does demonstrate that The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks is a valid methodology and process for that particular month.
- Our demonstration account, called The Charlie Fund, uses the popular “Dollar Cost Averaging Investment Strategy” with the monthly The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks as the primary research tool. For the 12 Month Report Card period it achieved a greater than 50% return, a further validation of the methodology.
- There are no guarantees! The reality is that there will always be ups and downs in the stock market and people make stocks buy, hold and sell decisions based on a wide range of logical and emotional criteria, input from knowledgeable hard-working experts and well meaning friends, and if the sky is blue today. But the historical data is pretty convincing that stocks will trend up at an above average investment rate over the long haul.
Additional Information
- The details of this summary, including company names and the over 200 fields of information for each company, were extracted from the updated The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks MS-Excel worksheet for October 2021, and has been distributed to The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks Subscribers for their personal use and further research
- The next 12 Month Report Card will be for November 2020, and should be available early to mid December, 2021.
- For characteristics of the most recent monthly The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks go to The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks information page.
The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks Report Cards for 2020 Summary |
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| 12 Month | |||
| Stock Price | 12 Month | 12 Month | |
| Report Card Month(Date) | Actual Date | Forecast | Actual |
| January 2020(02/04/20) | 01/29/21 | 16.59% | 33.92% |
| February 2020(02/28/20) | 02/26/21 | 27.69% | 42.66% |
| March 2020(03/31/20) | 03/31/21 | 28.96% | 53.35% |
| April 2020(05/01/20) | 04/30/21 | 16.16% | 50.18% |
| May 2020(05/29/20) | 05/28/21 | 9.89% | 37.80% |
| June 2020(07/02/20) | 07/02/21 | 30.88% | 47.08% |
| July 2020(07/30/20) | 07/31/21 | 33.61% | 37.77% |
| August 2020(09/01/20) | 08/31/21 | 32.85% | 40.79% |
| September 2020(10/02/20) | 09/30/21 | 27.68% | 52.82% |
| October 2020(10/30/20) | 10/29/21 | 26.43% | 23.22% |
| October 2020(10/30/20) w/o AMZN | 10/29/21 | 27.49% | 35.49% |
We are always interested in your feedback, which you can provide on the Contact Us page.
Not a The PBR25 Monthly Top Buy Stocks subscriber yet? Check out The PBR25 Information Page.
PBRMarketTools.com provides The PBR1000, a compilation of 1,000 of the largest publicly held companies with primary operations in the US. These companies generate $15 trillion in annual revenues, more than all other US companies combined. The PBR1000 Monthly Snapshots provides these 1,000 companies in Excel format, includes 15 worksheets with 28 rankings, over 200 data/information points, hotlinks to key data, and important news items per company. The monthly The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks is a subset of the monthly The PBR1000 and is available as a separate monthly or annual subscription.
Disclaimers: The PBR1000 is compiled from a variety of publicly available resources. As such, PBRMarketTools.com is not responsible for the data itself. Any liability for the representations or decisions based on the data is solely the responsibility of the authorized user, not PBRMarketTools.com, its employees or affiliates. PBRMarketTools.com is an independent business intelligence service providing news, data, and analysis. It is not a financial advisory or stock brokerage firm and has no affiliation with such organizations. Any research or opinions expressed should not be regarded as recommendations or advice.
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