The Week 51 of 2021 US Stock Market News Recap

The Stock Market Bull comes back with a vengeance, takes Week 51 with a 3-0 outright win, says “You’re welcome, Merry Christmas!”

By Larry C. Paxton

The US Stock Market Week 51 Summary:

Motivated by his strong finish win last week The Stock Market Bear again took to the pasture and successfully extracted some more flesh on Monday with a resounding 3-0 win. But The Stock Market Bull had had enough. On Tuesday he more than made up the difference, and continued to dominate for the rest of the short Week 51 trading week, with the successive days not being quite as large as the previous day. But the return was dramatic, and even resulted in a new record close for the S&P500 on Thursday. Friday was Christmas Eve, the US stock exchanges were closed, and it became a time to rest and relax before the final week of 2021. So even with the Omnicron COVID-19 variant becoming the dominant strain spreading rapidly around the world, economic uncertainties, and another upcoming contentious mid-term election year, The Stock Market Bull has a very solid lead for the year going into Week 52.

Summary News Items for Week 51:

US Economic News

• Friday, December 24, 2021

• ***Christmas Eve.
  ***US Stock Exchanges Closed.
  ***No economic news releases.

• Thursday, December 23, 2021

• The US Dept of Commerce says the Preliminary November 2021 US Personal Income Annual Rate is at $20.868 trillion, October was at $20.778, September $20.685, November 2020 $19.435, November 2019 $18.788.
• The US Dept of Commerce/HUD says the Preliminary November 2021 US New Family Homes Sold Annual Rate is at 744,000, October was at 662,000, September 723,000, November 2020 865,000 November 2019 696,000; the November 2021 US New Family Homes Sold Median Price is at $416,900, October was at $408,700, September $405,300, November 2020 $350,800, November 2019 $328,000.
• The U of Michigan Final December 2021 US Consumer Sentiment Index is at 70.6, November was at 67.4, October 71.7, December 2020 80.7, December 2019 99.3. “… The uptick was primarily due to significant gains among households with incomes in the bottom third of the distribution. Indeed, the bottom third expected their incomes to rise during the year ahead by 2.8%, up from 1.8% last December, and the highest level since 2.9% was recorded in 1999…”

• Wednesday, December 22, 2021

• The US Dept of Commerce/BEA says the 3Q21 3rd Estimate US Current Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate is at +2.3%, $23.202 trillion, 2Q21 was at +6.7%, 1Q21 +6.3%, 3Q20 +33.8%, 3Q19 +2.8%.
• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago says the Preliminary November 2021 US National Activity Index is at +0.37, October was at +0.75, September -0.01, November 2020 +0.26, November 2019 +0.29. “Index suggests economic growth moderated in November.”
• The Natl Assn of Realtors says the Preliminary November 2021 US Existing Home Sales Annual Rate is at 6,460,000 units, October was at 6,340,000, September 6,290,000, November 2020 6,590,000, November 2019 5,320,000; the November 2021 Median Home Sales Price is at $353,900, October was also at $353,900, September $352,800, November 2020 $310,800, November 2019 $271,300. “Determined buyers were able to land housing before mortgage rates rise further in the coming months… Locking in a constant and firm mortgage payment motivated many consumers who grew weary of escalating rents over the last year….”
• The Conference Board says the Preliminary December 2021 US Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100) is at 115.8, November was at 111.9. “The Present Situation Index dipped slightly but remains very high, suggesting the economy has maintained its momentum in the final month of 2021. Expectations about short-term growth prospects improved, setting the stage for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, major appliances, and vacations over the next six months all increased… Meanwhile, concerns about inflation declined after hitting a 13-year high last month as did concerns about COVID-19, despite reports of continued price increases and the emergence of the Omicron variant. Looking ahead to 2022, both confidence and consumer spending will continue to face headwinds from rising prices and an expected winter surge of the pandemic.”

• Tuesday, December 21, 2021

• The US Dept of Commerce/BEA says the Preliminary 3Q21 US Exports of Goods, Services, & Income Receipts is at $955.9 billion, US Imports of Goods, Services & Income Payments is at $1,170.7 billion, making the 3Q21 US Trade Balance Deficit at $214.8 billion, 2Q21 was at $198.3 billion, 1Q21 $189.4 billion, 3Q20 $172.4 billion, 3Q19 $121.6 billion.
• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia says the December 2021 3rd District Non-Manufacturing General Activity Index is at +12.5, November was at +46.1, October +33.4, October 2020 +16.0, October 2019 +12.2. “Overall, the respondents continued to expect improvement in conditions over the next six months, but both future activity indexes fell.”

• Monday, December 20, 2021

• The Conference Board says the Preliminary November 2021 US Leading Economic Index(2016=100) is at 119.9, October was at 118.8, September 117.9, November 2020 109.4, November 2019 111.6. ““The U.S. LEI rose sharply again in November, suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into the first half of 2022, … Inflation and continuing supply chain disruptions, as well as a resurgence of COVID-19, pose risks to GDP growth in 2022. Still, the economic impact of these risks may be contained. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth to strengthen in Q4 2021 to about 6.5 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still healthy rate of 2.2 percent in Q1 2022.”

US Government/Other News

• US President Biden’s centerpiece $2.4 trillion “Build Back Better Act” legislation is stalled in the US Senate, primarily because one Senate Democrat, Joe Manchin, has said he cannot vote for the bill in good conscience.  The next actions will probably include breaking up the bill into smaller separate parts.
• The fast spreading COVID-19 Omnicron virus variant has become the dominant strain throughout the world and US.
• The US Federal Government has authorized the purchase and distribution of 500 million COVID-19 tests.
• It was an explosive year for Initial Public Offerings, with a record over 1,000 during 2021.
• US President Biden extends the pause on student loan payments until May 1, 2022.
• The Iran nuclear deal negotiations are to resume next week in Vienna.

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The Week 48 of 2021 US Stock Market News Recap

The Stock Market Bear gets the Week 48 win thanks to his new good buddy the Omicron COVID-19 variant, with Fed Chair Powell also contributing per his comments on possible Fed actions.

By Larry C. Paxton

The US Stock Market Week 48 Summary:

It was a back and forth Week 48 with The Stock Market Bull charging out of the gate on Monday and having a big day. The Stock Market Bear took it personally and came out slashing on Tuesday and overtook the Bull’s lead, thanks to the announcement of a new COVID-19 variant, named Omicron, and also Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s comments on possible Fed monetary policy changes regarding its tapering program and raising interest rates on short federal short term funds. This moved forward into Wednesday where more blood was shed in the markets. The Stock Market Bull struck back on Thursday, but more was still needed to catch up to the losses. The Stock Market Bear closed out the week with additional information on the variant, Fed policy options, and a below US employment situation report. Chalk up Week 48 of 2021 to The Stock Market Bear who gets a complete 3-0 win.

Summary News Items for Week 48:

US Economic News

• Friday, December 3, 2021

• The US Dept of Labor says the November 2021 Number of People Available for the Labor Force is at 162,052,000, Number of People Employed is at 155,175,000, Unemployed 6,877,000, for an Unemployment Rate of 4.2%, October 2021 was at 4.6%, September 2021 4.8%, November 2020 6.7%, November 2019 3.4%.
• The US Dept of Commerce/Census says the Preliminary October 2021 US Manufacturers New Orders-Durables is at $261.5 billion, Non-Durables $261.9, for October 2021 US Manufacturers New Orders Total at $523.4 billion, September was at $513.2 billion, August $508.2 billion, October 2020 $463.2 billion, October 2019 $472.4 billion.
• The Institute for Supply Management says the November 2021 US Services PMI Index(>50% economy expanding) is at 69.1%, a new record high, October was at 66.7%, September 61.9%, November 2020 55.9%, November 2019 53.9%. “… Demand continues to outpace supply that has been impacted by capacity constraints, shortages of labor and materials, and logistical challenges. This has also caused demand-pull inflation that is affecting overall business conditions.”
• The IHS Markit November 2021 US Composite PMI Output Index is at 57.2, October was at 57.6, September 55.0, November 2020 58.6, November 2019 52.0. “While business expectations for the year ahead rose in November, the vast majority of the survey data were collected prior to the news of the Omicron variant, which casts a renewed shadow of uncertainty over the outlook for business and poses a downside risk to near-term growth prospects.“

• Thursday, December 2, 2021

• ***No economic news releases today.

• Wednesday, December 1, 2021

• The US Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book summary of the 12 districts for data through 11/19/21. Summary: “Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Federal Reserve Districts during October and early November. Several Districts noted that despite strong demand, growth was constrained by supply chain disruptions and labor shortages….”
• ADP says the Preliminary November 2021 US Monthly Change in US Employment-Small Businesses(1-49 Employees) is at +115,000, Mid-Sized(50-499) +142,000, Large-Sized(500 or more) +277,000, making the November 2021 US Monthly Change in US Employment Total at +534,000, October was at +571,000, September +568,000, November 2020 307,000, November 2019 +67,000. “November’s job gains bring the three month average to 543,000 monthly jobs added, a modest uptick from the job pace earlier this year. Job gains have eclipsed 15 million since the recovery began, though 5 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. Service providers, which are more vulnerable to the pandemic, have dominated job gains this year. It’s too early to tell if the Omicron variant could potentially slow the jobs recovery in coming months.”
• The US Dept of Commerce/Census says the Preliminary October 2021 US New Construction Spending Annual Rate-Residential is at $783.9 billion, Non-Residential $814.2 billion, making October 2021 US New Construction Spending Annual Rate Total at $1,598.0 billion, September was at $1,594.8 billion, August $1,596.8 billion, October 2020 $1,471.7 billion, October 2019 $1,386.8 billion.
• The Institute for Supply Management says the November 2021 Manufacturing PMI Index(>50% economy is growing) is at 61.1%, October was at 60.8%, September 61.1%, November 2020 57.5%, November 2019 48.1%. “… panel sentiment remains strongly optimistic, with 10 positive growth comments for every cautious comment. Panelists remain focused on the importance of improving supply chain issues to respond to ongoing high levels of demand.”
• The IHS Markit November 2021 US Manufacturing PMI Index is at 58.3, October was at 58.4, September 60.7, November 2020 56.7, November 2019 52.6. “Broad swathes of US manufacturing remain hamstrung by supply chain bottlenecks and difficulties filling staff vacancies. Although November brought some signs of supply chain problems easing slightly to the lowest recorded for six months, widespread shortages of inputs meant production growth was again severely constrained….”

• Tuesday, November 30, 2021

• The US Dept of the Treasury says on 11/26/21 the US National Debt-Public is at $22.649 trillion, Intragovernmental $6.260, making the 11/26/21 US National Debt Total at $28.909 trillion, 10/29/21 was also at $28.909 trillion, 09/30 21 $28.429 trillion, 11/30/20 $27.446 trillion, 11/29/19 $23.076 trillion.
• The Conference Board says the Preliminary November 2021 US Confident Index(1985=100) is at 109.5, October was at 111.6, September 109.8, November 2020 92.9, November 2019 126.8. “… The Conference Board expects this to be a good holiday season for retailers and confidence levels suggest the economic expansion will continue into early 2022. However, both confidence and spending will likely face headwinds from rising prices and a potential resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming months.”
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Preliminary September 2021 US National Home Price Index(01/2000=100) is at 271.18, +19.51% from 12 months ago, August was at +19.79%, July +19.69%, September 2020 +7.03%, September 2019 +3.12%. “We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven by households’ reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents simply an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years, or reflects a secular change in locational preferences. September’s report is consistent with either explanation.”
• The American Automobile Assn says the 11/30/21 US Average Price for a Gallon of Regular Gas is at $3.390, 10/29/21 was at $3.401, 09/30/21 $3.189, 11/30/20 $2.127, 11/29/19 $2.587. “It’s too soon to tell if fears of a global economic slowdown caused by the Omicron variant will push oil prices lower for the long term… But for now, the upward pricing pressure due to tightened supply and high demand seems to have abated, and that will likely result in pump prices stabilizing.”
• MNI Indicators/ISM Chicago reports that the November 2021 Chicago Business Barometer(>50 gaining) is at 61.8, October was at 68.4, September 64.7, November 2020 58.2, November 2019 46.3. “… the lowest reading since February, driven by a slow-down in new orders.”
• The US Dept of the Treasury says the 11/30/21 Closing Yield on a 10 Year Treasury Note is at 1.43%, 10/29/21 was at 1.55%, 09/30/21 1.52%, 11/30/20 0.84%, 11/29/19 1.78%.
• The 11/30/21 Settlement Price for an Ounce of Gold is at $1,776.50, 10/29/21 was at $1,784.40, 09/30/21 $1,757.00, 11/30/20 $1,780.90, 11/29/19 $1,472.70.
• On 11/30/21 the Price of a Bitcoin is at $57,368, 10/29/21 was at $62,339, 09/30/21 $43,725, 11/30/20 $13,243, 11/29/19 $6,559.

• Monday, November 29, 2021

• ***No economic news releases.

US Government/Other News

• US President Biden signs into law a bill to fund the federal government through February 18, 2022. Congress will next address a debt limit increase bill.
• The Omnicron COVID-19 variant starts to appear in the US, health organizations encourage people to be vaccinated, now includes newly approved boosters. US President Biden says no shutdowns or lockdowns will be implemented.
• Online shoppers spent $33.9 billion from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, down 1.4% according to Adobe Analytics, also saying that people were concerned about supply logistics, had already made advanced purchases.
• The US government announces a significant increase in Medicare Part B premiums starting in 2022.
• The November US jobs report comes in lower than expected.

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The November 2021 US Stock Market News Recap

The Omicron variant of COVID-19 and Fed Chair Powell’s comments on accelerating tapering gave The Stock Market Bear the edge on the last day of November, but it was only enough for a mixed 2-1 result.

By Larry C. Paxton

The US Stock Market November 2021 Summary:

Week 44 started November with The Stock Market Bull continuing where he left off in October by notching his 5th consecutive weekly victory, which also included many new record high closes. The Stock Market Bear finally clawed his way to a Week 45 3-0 win. This alarmed The Stock Market Bull who tried to take charge of the pasture, but having to settle for a Week 46 2-1 mixed result. The Stock Market Bear made a statement with a bounce back Week 47 3-0 win. At the start of Week 48 The Stock Market Bull had an excellent Monday, but the news that evening was not good, mostly about the uncertainties regarding the new Omnicron COVID-19 variant making itself known in Africa and Europe. Then Tuesday morning Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talked about accelerating the reduction of the tapering program because of apparent stubbornness of higher and longer lasting inflation rates. At the end of November the bottom line was a mixed 2-1 result in favor of The Stock Market Bear. The Stock Market Bull maintains a significant lead year-to-date. It remains highly unlikely that The Stock Market Bear becomes The Grinch Who Stole Christmas.

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PBRMarketTools.com provides The PBR1000, a compilation of 1,000 of the largest publicly held companies with primary operations in the US. These companies generate $15 trillion in annual revenues, more than all other US companies combined. The PBR1000 Monthly Snapshots provides these 1,000 companies in Excel format, includes 15 worksheets with 28 rankings, over 200 data/information points, hotlinks to key data, and important news items per company.

Disclaimers: The research PBRMarketTools.com provides is compiled from a variety of publicly available resources. As such, PBRMarketTools.com is not responsible for the data itself. Any liability for the representations or decisions based on the data is solely the responsibility of the authorized user, not PBRMarketTools.com, its employees or affiliates. PBRMarketTools.com is an independent business intelligence service providing news, data, and analysis. We provide information only and it should not be regarded as recommendations or advice. PBRMarketTools.com is not a financial advisory or stock brokerage firm and has no affiliation with such organizations.

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