The PBR1000 for September 2020: The Stock Market Bear Returns

By Larry C. Paxton

The PBRMarketTools US Stock Exchanges Recap for September 2020 ending 09/30/20:

DJIA ends September at 27,781.70, +2.24% from last Friday, -2.28% MTD, +7.63% QTD, -2.65% YTD, -5.99% from record 29,551.42 set 02/12/20.

NASDAQ ends September at 11,167.51, +2.33% from last Friday, -5.16% MTD, +11.02% QTD, +24.46% YTD, -7.37% from record 12,056.44 set 09/02/20.

SPX ends September at 3,363.00, +1.96% from last Friday, -3.92% MTD, +8.47% QTD, +4.09% YTD, -6.08% from record 3,580.84 set 09/02/20.

The September 2020 News Summary: The Coronavirus Pandemic continued to be the main theme throughout September, but there were several other news items that had their turns at dominating the news for a day or so. The Coronavirus Pandemic tallies as of today at 12:33PM Eastern US by the John Hopkins University CSSE unit is now 33,799,264 confirmed cases globally with 1,010,381 deaths, an increase of 162,351, a 6% downward trend from August. For the US it’s 7,219,635 confirmed cases and 206,665 deaths, an increase of 23,266, a 24% downward trend from August. There are now vaccine candidates in Phase 3 testing, results should be known within a few weeks. If it looks good then it appears that a vaccine should be available by the end of 2020/early 2021, production and logistics plans are being developed for quick deployment. Rapid tests are also coming to market, with concerns about false positive/negative results being at higher percentages than would be liked. Schools and universities opened up in a variety of formats with mixed results and opinions. Several major college conferences reversed course and decided to play football, basketball and other fall sports, with shortened seasons, frequent testing of athletes and staff, to empty stadiums, and with different playoff methods. At the professional level football is being played, as is basketball, with interuptions from positive COVID-19 tests, and the Tampa Bay Lightning won hockey’s Stanley Cup Championship in a shortened season. In international trade and news the US and China continue to have stalled trade negotiations, with some of that being the controversy over popular China based app TikTok, which apparently can capture a lot of individual information. A deal in which Oracle and Walmart acquire, or have controlling interest in the US version has the blessing of the US, but not necessarily China, and needs to be resolved by 11/12/20. A major and unexpected international agreement brokered by the US was the ‘Abraham’ peace accords signed by Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The US economy is recovering, maybe at a slower pace, but is considered out of recession. Jobs results are a little mixed, several major corporations and industries, especially travel, are announcing major layoffs. Manufacturing seems to be increasing. Retail is starting to hire for the upcoming holiday season. Home sales and new construction are up. The Federal Reserve modified its 2% inflation guidelines which would keep federal short term interest rates very low for a few years. At the end of the month a new stimulus package appeared to be eminent, but apparently became stalled. Wildfires raged in California, Oregon, and Washington, displacing hundreds of thousands of people and destroying homes and businesses. The Gulf Coast was hit by Hurricane Sally and caused widespread damage as well. In US government news revered Supreme Court Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away at 87, considered to be a liberal member, and most noted for being a strong crusader for women’s rights. In a controversial move President Trump quickly nominated conservative and highly regarded jurist Amy Coney Barrett as the successor, which would clearly define SCOTUS as conservative. Senate hearings on her confirmation start 10/12/20 and it appears that she could be approved and take the vacant seat by the 11/03/20 election day, which would be a record for shortest time to get through the process. The US 2020 Presidential Election Race experienced a very contentious and chaotic first debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice-President Joe Biden. Next is a Vice President debate followed by two more presidential debate encounters. The major US stock exchanges were volatile in September, impacted significantly by a technology sector selloff. However, by the end of the month both the NASDAQ and S&P500 were ahead for the year with the Dow Jones retreating back into negative territory. The Stock Market Bull and The Stock Market Bear both had their moments in the day-to-day gore and slash battles, but in the end The Stock Market Bear took the 9th month victory by a wide margin, but still lagging year-to-date. There is a lot going on, many moving parts, many varying expert opinions, it’s anyone’s guess about what will happen. Enjoy the rollercoaster ride that appears certain for October.

The September 2020 tally YTD is:
The Stock Market Bull: 5 months
The Stock Market Bear: 3 months
Mixed Results: 1 month

 

The September 2020 US Major Stock Market Exchanges Summary

Number of Trading Days: 21

Number of Gain(+)/Loss(-) Days: DJIA 12+/9-; NASDAQ 10+/11-; SPX 11+/10-.

Record Days: DJIA 0, NASDAQ 2, SPX 2

Longest Gain Streak(Consecutive Days): DJIA 4 days(09/11-16/20), NASDAQ 4 days(08/28-09/02/20),  and SPX 3 days(09/11-15/20, 09/24-28/20)

Longest Loss Streak(Consecutive Days): DJIA 3 days(09/03-08/20, 09/17-21/20), NASDAQ 4 days(09/16-21/20), and SPX 4 days(09/16-21/20)

Big Swing Up Days(>1.00%): 9 days, 09/01/20( N +1.39%), 09/02/20(D +1.59%, S +1.54%), 09/09/20(D +1.60%, N +2.71%, S +2.01%), 09/14/20(D +1.18%, N +1.87%, S +1.27%), 09/15/20(N +1.21%), 09/22/20(N +1.71%, S +1.05%), 09/25/20(D +1.34%, N +2.26%, S +1.60%), 09/28/20(D +1.51%, N +1.87%, S +1.61%), 09/30/20(D +1.20%)

Big Swing Down Days(<-1.00%): 9 days, 09/03/20(D -2.78%, N -4.96%, S -3.51%), 09/04/20(N -1.27%), 09/08/20(D -2.25%, N -4.11%, S -2.78%), 09/10/20(D -1.45%, N -1.99%, S -1.76%), 09/16/20(N -1.25%), 09/17/20(N -1.27%), 09/18/20(N -1.07%, S -1.12%), 09/21/20(D -1.84%, S -1.16%), 09/23/20(D -1.92%, N -3.02%, S -2.37%)

The PBR1000 September 2020 Snapshots

The following are Top 5 partial tables excerpts from The PBR1000 September 2020 Snapshots. The price for stocks is for the close of trading on September 30, 2020, 1 Month % Chg is compared to August 31, 2020, 12 Months % Chg is compared to September 30, 2019, and the 24 Months % Chg is compared to September 28, 2018. The PBR Rank is by annual revenues.

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Table 1(S11): The PBR1000 Top 5 Month Stock Price % Gainers

Table 1 Summary: The range was +69% to -64%. 294 out of 999 stocks were up 0% or more. The average was a loss of 2.81%, the median was a loss of 3.69%. The DJIA was -2.28%, NASDAQ -5.16%, SPX -3.92%.

Company	PBR Rank	Symbol	Price 09/30/20	Mo % Chg	12 Mos % Chg	24 Mos % Chg
Scientific Games	680	SGMS	$ 34.91	+69	+72	+37
GameStop	450	GME	$ 10.20	+53	+85	-33
Owens & Minor	331	OMI	$ 25.11	+51	+332	+52
Eastman Kodak	985	KODK	$ 8.82	+47	+234	+185
Penn Natl Gaming	516	PENN	$ 72.70	+42	+290	+121

Table 2(S12): The PBR1000 Top 5 12 Months Stock Price % Gainers

Table 2 Summary: The range was +791% to -87%. 409 out of 994 stocks were up 0% or more. The average was a gain of 4.53%, the median was a loss of 6.54%. The DJIA was +3.21%, NASDAQ +39.61%, SPX +12.98%.

Company	PBR Rank	Symbol	Price 09/30/20	Mo % Chg	12 Mos % Chg	24 Mos % Chg
Tesla	118	TSLA	$ 429.01	-14	+791	+710
Owens & Minor	331	OMI	$ 25.11	+51	+332	+52
Penn Natl Gaming	516	PENN	$ 72.70	+42	+290	+121
Camping World	540	CWH	$ 29.75	+2	+234	+40
Eastman Kodak	985	KODK	$ 8.82	+47	+234	+185

Table 3(S13): The PBR1000 Top 5 24 Months Stock Price % Gainers

Table 3 Summary: The range was +710% to -95%. 393 out of 982 stocks were up 0% or more. The average was a gain of 6.71%. The median was a loss of 12.19%. The DJIA was +5.00%, NASDAQ +38.79%, SPX +15.41%.

Company	PBR Rank	Symbol	Price 09/30/20	Mo % Chg	12 Mos % Chg	24 Mos % Chg
Tesla	118	TSLA	$ 429.01	-14	+791	+710
Snap	941	SNAP	$ 26.11	+16	+65	+208
Boston Beer	979	SAM	$ 883.36	+0	+143	+207
RH	808	RH	$ 382.62	+16	+124	+192
Twilio	993	TWLO	$ 247.09	-8	+125	+186

Table 4(S15): The PBR1000 Top 5 Market Capitalization

Table 4 Summary: The range was $2,008 billion to $0.01 billion. The average is $31.525 billion, median is $7.10 billion, out of 1,000 companies.

Company	PBR Rank	Symbol	Market Cap($B) 09/30/20	Mo % Chg	12/19 % Chg	12/17 % Chg
Apple	4	AAPL	$ 2,008	-6	+56	+130
Microsoft	17	MSFT	$ 1,592	-8	+32	+142
Amazon	2	AMZN	$ 1,577	-7	+72	+184
Alphabet	11	GOOG	$ 998	-11	+8	+37
Facebook	47	FB	$ 746	-11	+28	+46
The PBR1000			$ 31,525	-5	+4	+22

Table 5: The PBR1000 Index & Primary US Stock Exchanges/Commodities

Company	Price 09/30/20	Mo % Chg	12 Mos % Chg	24 Mos % Chg
The PBR1000	97,342.36	-2.8	+4.5	+6.7
DJIA	27,781.70	-2.8	+3.2	+5.0
NASDAQ	11,167.51	-5.2	+39.6	+38.8
S&P500	3,363.00	-3.9	+13.0	+15.4
GOLD	1,895.50	-4.2	+28.2	+58.5
SILVER	23.49	-17.8	+37.9	+59.9
OIL	40.22	-5.6	-25.9	-45.3

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