The Week 48 of 2021 US Stock Market News Recap

The Stock Market Bear gets the Week 48 win thanks to his new good buddy the Omicron COVID-19 variant, with Fed Chair Powell also contributing per his comments on possible Fed actions.

By Larry C. Paxton

The US Stock Market Week 48 Summary:

It was a back and forth Week 48 with The Stock Market Bull charging out of the gate on Monday and having a big day. The Stock Market Bear took it personally and came out slashing on Tuesday and overtook the Bull’s lead, thanks to the announcement of a new COVID-19 variant, named Omicron, and also Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s comments on possible Fed monetary policy changes regarding its tapering program and raising interest rates on short federal short term funds. This moved forward into Wednesday where more blood was shed in the markets. The Stock Market Bull struck back on Thursday, but more was still needed to catch up to the losses. The Stock Market Bear closed out the week with additional information on the variant, Fed policy options, and a below US employment situation report. Chalk up Week 48 of 2021 to The Stock Market Bear who gets a complete 3-0 win.

Summary News Items for Week 48:

US Economic News

• Friday, December 3, 2021

• The US Dept of Labor says the November 2021 Number of People Available for the Labor Force is at 162,052,000, Number of People Employed is at 155,175,000, Unemployed 6,877,000, for an Unemployment Rate of 4.2%, October 2021 was at 4.6%, September 2021 4.8%, November 2020 6.7%, November 2019 3.4%.
• The US Dept of Commerce/Census says the Preliminary October 2021 US Manufacturers New Orders-Durables is at $261.5 billion, Non-Durables $261.9, for October 2021 US Manufacturers New Orders Total at $523.4 billion, September was at $513.2 billion, August $508.2 billion, October 2020 $463.2 billion, October 2019 $472.4 billion.
• The Institute for Supply Management says the November 2021 US Services PMI Index(>50% economy expanding) is at 69.1%, a new record high, October was at 66.7%, September 61.9%, November 2020 55.9%, November 2019 53.9%. “… Demand continues to outpace supply that has been impacted by capacity constraints, shortages of labor and materials, and logistical challenges. This has also caused demand-pull inflation that is affecting overall business conditions.”
• The IHS Markit November 2021 US Composite PMI Output Index is at 57.2, October was at 57.6, September 55.0, November 2020 58.6, November 2019 52.0. “While business expectations for the year ahead rose in November, the vast majority of the survey data were collected prior to the news of the Omicron variant, which casts a renewed shadow of uncertainty over the outlook for business and poses a downside risk to near-term growth prospects.“

• Thursday, December 2, 2021

• ***No economic news releases today.

• Wednesday, December 1, 2021

• The US Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book summary of the 12 districts for data through 11/19/21. Summary: “Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Federal Reserve Districts during October and early November. Several Districts noted that despite strong demand, growth was constrained by supply chain disruptions and labor shortages….”
• ADP says the Preliminary November 2021 US Monthly Change in US Employment-Small Businesses(1-49 Employees) is at +115,000, Mid-Sized(50-499) +142,000, Large-Sized(500 or more) +277,000, making the November 2021 US Monthly Change in US Employment Total at +534,000, October was at +571,000, September +568,000, November 2020 307,000, November 2019 +67,000. “November’s job gains bring the three month average to 543,000 monthly jobs added, a modest uptick from the job pace earlier this year. Job gains have eclipsed 15 million since the recovery began, though 5 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. Service providers, which are more vulnerable to the pandemic, have dominated job gains this year. It’s too early to tell if the Omicron variant could potentially slow the jobs recovery in coming months.”
• The US Dept of Commerce/Census says the Preliminary October 2021 US New Construction Spending Annual Rate-Residential is at $783.9 billion, Non-Residential $814.2 billion, making October 2021 US New Construction Spending Annual Rate Total at $1,598.0 billion, September was at $1,594.8 billion, August $1,596.8 billion, October 2020 $1,471.7 billion, October 2019 $1,386.8 billion.
• The Institute for Supply Management says the November 2021 Manufacturing PMI Index(>50% economy is growing) is at 61.1%, October was at 60.8%, September 61.1%, November 2020 57.5%, November 2019 48.1%. “… panel sentiment remains strongly optimistic, with 10 positive growth comments for every cautious comment. Panelists remain focused on the importance of improving supply chain issues to respond to ongoing high levels of demand.”
• The IHS Markit November 2021 US Manufacturing PMI Index is at 58.3, October was at 58.4, September 60.7, November 2020 56.7, November 2019 52.6. “Broad swathes of US manufacturing remain hamstrung by supply chain bottlenecks and difficulties filling staff vacancies. Although November brought some signs of supply chain problems easing slightly to the lowest recorded for six months, widespread shortages of inputs meant production growth was again severely constrained….”

• Tuesday, November 30, 2021

• The US Dept of the Treasury says on 11/26/21 the US National Debt-Public is at $22.649 trillion, Intragovernmental $6.260, making the 11/26/21 US National Debt Total at $28.909 trillion, 10/29/21 was also at $28.909 trillion, 09/30 21 $28.429 trillion, 11/30/20 $27.446 trillion, 11/29/19 $23.076 trillion.
• The Conference Board says the Preliminary November 2021 US Confident Index(1985=100) is at 109.5, October was at 111.6, September 109.8, November 2020 92.9, November 2019 126.8. “… The Conference Board expects this to be a good holiday season for retailers and confidence levels suggest the economic expansion will continue into early 2022. However, both confidence and spending will likely face headwinds from rising prices and a potential resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming months.”
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Preliminary September 2021 US National Home Price Index(01/2000=100) is at 271.18, +19.51% from 12 months ago, August was at +19.79%, July +19.69%, September 2020 +7.03%, September 2019 +3.12%. “We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven by households’ reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents simply an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years, or reflects a secular change in locational preferences. September’s report is consistent with either explanation.”
• The American Automobile Assn says the 11/30/21 US Average Price for a Gallon of Regular Gas is at $3.390, 10/29/21 was at $3.401, 09/30/21 $3.189, 11/30/20 $2.127, 11/29/19 $2.587. “It’s too soon to tell if fears of a global economic slowdown caused by the Omicron variant will push oil prices lower for the long term… But for now, the upward pricing pressure due to tightened supply and high demand seems to have abated, and that will likely result in pump prices stabilizing.”
• MNI Indicators/ISM Chicago reports that the November 2021 Chicago Business Barometer(>50 gaining) is at 61.8, October was at 68.4, September 64.7, November 2020 58.2, November 2019 46.3. “… the lowest reading since February, driven by a slow-down in new orders.”
• The US Dept of the Treasury says the 11/30/21 Closing Yield on a 10 Year Treasury Note is at 1.43%, 10/29/21 was at 1.55%, 09/30/21 1.52%, 11/30/20 0.84%, 11/29/19 1.78%.
• The 11/30/21 Settlement Price for an Ounce of Gold is at $1,776.50, 10/29/21 was at $1,784.40, 09/30/21 $1,757.00, 11/30/20 $1,780.90, 11/29/19 $1,472.70.
• On 11/30/21 the Price of a Bitcoin is at $57,368, 10/29/21 was at $62,339, 09/30/21 $43,725, 11/30/20 $13,243, 11/29/19 $6,559.

• Monday, November 29, 2021

• ***No economic news releases.

US Government/Other News

• US President Biden signs into law a bill to fund the federal government through February 18, 2022. Congress will next address a debt limit increase bill.
• The Omnicron COVID-19 variant starts to appear in the US, health organizations encourage people to be vaccinated, now includes newly approved boosters. US President Biden says no shutdowns or lockdowns will be implemented.
• Online shoppers spent $33.9 billion from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, down 1.4% according to Adobe Analytics, also saying that people were concerned about supply logistics, had already made advanced purchases.
• The US government announces a significant increase in Medicare Part B premiums starting in 2022.
• The November US jobs report comes in lower than expected.

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The November 2021 US Stock Market News Recap

The Omicron variant of COVID-19 and Fed Chair Powell’s comments on accelerating tapering gave The Stock Market Bear the edge on the last day of November, but it was only enough for a mixed 2-1 result.

By Larry C. Paxton

The US Stock Market November 2021 Summary:

Week 44 started November with The Stock Market Bull continuing where he left off in October by notching his 5th consecutive weekly victory, which also included many new record high closes. The Stock Market Bear finally clawed his way to a Week 45 3-0 win. This alarmed The Stock Market Bull who tried to take charge of the pasture, but having to settle for a Week 46 2-1 mixed result. The Stock Market Bear made a statement with a bounce back Week 47 3-0 win. At the start of Week 48 The Stock Market Bull had an excellent Monday, but the news that evening was not good, mostly about the uncertainties regarding the new Omnicron COVID-19 variant making itself known in Africa and Europe. Then Tuesday morning Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talked about accelerating the reduction of the tapering program because of apparent stubbornness of higher and longer lasting inflation rates. At the end of November the bottom line was a mixed 2-1 result in favor of The Stock Market Bear. The Stock Market Bull maintains a significant lead year-to-date. It remains highly unlikely that The Stock Market Bear becomes The Grinch Who Stole Christmas.

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The Week 47 of 2021 US Stock Market News Recap

The Stock Market Bull had a mixed win going for him through Thursday, but the new COVID-19 variant became The Stock Market Bear’s BFF, and he gets the 3-0 win for Week 47 of 2021.

By Larry C. Paxton

The US Stock Market Week 47 Summary:

The Stock Market Bull started out Week 47 by focusing on the DJIA, so The Stock Market Bear decided to take on the tech heavy and volatile NASDAQ, and took aim at the S&P500 as well. This dance worked well on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday the roles reversed with The Stock Market Bull capturing the NASDAQ and S&P500, The Stock Market Bear got the DJIA. Going into the US Thanksgiving Day Holiday it appeared that a mixed result was going to be the most likely result. But The Stock Market Bear received an early Black Friday gift as another coronavirus variant appears to be spreading across the globe. The Stock Market Bear took advantage of this early news and on Friday roared throughout the day as he took a 2%+ bite out of all 3 major US stock indices. The Stock Market Bear takes Week 47 with a dramatic come from behind 3-0 win. With only two trading days left in November he also has the edge for the month, but The Stock Market Bull remains well ahead YTD.

Summary News Items for Week 47:

US Economic News

• Friday, November 26, 2021

• ***Day after US Thanksgiving(Black Friday).
  ***US Stock Exchanges Close at 1:00PM EST.
  ***No economic news releases.

• Thursday, November 25, 2021

• ***US Thanksgiving Day.
  ***US Stock Exchanges Closed.
  ***No economic news releases.

• Wednesday, November 24, 2021

• The US Federal Open Market Committee released the Minutes of its 11/02-03/21 meeting. Comments include: “Overall financial conditions remained accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses. Participants noted that the path of the economy continued to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints were expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation, but risks to the economic outlook remained.”
• The US Dept of Commerce/BEA says that the 3Q21 2nd Estimate US Gross Domestic Product Annual Rate is at +2.1%, 2Q21 was at +6.7%, 1Q21 +6.3%, 3Q20 +33.8%, 3Q19 +2.8%; the 3Q21 Annual GDP is at $23.187 trillion, 2Q21 was at $22.741 trillion, 1Q21 $22.038, 3Q20 $21.139 trillion, 3Q19 $21.540 trillion.
• The U of Michigan Final November 2021 Consumer Sentiment Index is at 67.4, October was at 71.7, September 72.8, November 2020 76.9, November 2019 96.8. “Consumers expressed less optimism in the November 2021 survey than any other time in the past decade about prospects for their own finances as well as for the overall economy. The decline was due to a combination of rapidly escalating inflation combined with the absence of federal policies that would effectively redress the inflationary damage to household budgets.”
• The US Dept of Labor says the 11/20/21 US Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims are at 199,000, the lowest level for initial claims since November 15, 1969 when it was 197,000. 11/21/20 was at 762,000, 11/30/19 213,000; the 11/13/21 US Total Insured Unemployment is at 2,049,000, the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 14, 2020 when it was 1,770,000, 11/14/20 was at 6,138,000, 11/23/19 1,640,000.
• The US Dept of Commerce/BEA says the Preliminary October 2021 US Personal Income Annual Rate is at $20.783 trillion, September was at $20.690 trillion, August $20.894 trillion, October 2020 $19.728 trillion, October 2019 $18.764 trillion.
• The US Dept of Commerce/HUD says the Preliminary October 2021 US New Family Homes Sold Annual Rate is at 745,000, September was at 742,000, August 693,000, October 2020 969,000, October 2019 706,000; the Preliminary October 2021 US New Family Home Median Sales Price is at $407,700, September was at $404,700, August $407,600, October 2020 $346,900, October 2019 $322,400.
• FreddieMac says on 11/24/21 the US Weekly Average 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage is at 3.10% with 0.7 points & fees, 10/28/21 was at 3.14%, 09/30/21 3.01&, 11/25/20 2.72%, 11/27/19 3.68%. “Despite the noise around the economy, inflation, and monetary policy, mortgage rate volatility has been low. For most of 2021, mortgage rates have stayed within half a percentage point, which is a smaller range than in past years.”
• TrueCar says the Forecasted November 2021 US New Cars Sold-Retail is at 971,021, Fleet 102,022, making Forecasted November 2021 US New Cars Sold Total at 1,073,043, October was at 1,056,866, September 1,006,931, November 2020 1,214,891, November 2019 1,413,464; the November 2021 US New Car Average Transaction Price is at $41,139, October was at $40,383, September $39,724, November 2020 $37,876, November 2019 $36,317.
• The US Energy Information Administration says the 11/19/21 US Millions of Barrels Crude Oil Inventories is at 434.0, 10/22/21 was at 430.8, 09/24/21 418.5, 11/20/20 488.6, 11/22/19 452.0.

• Tuesday, November 23, 2021

• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia says the November 2021 US 3rd District Nonmanufacturing Current General Activity Index is at +46.1, October was at +33.4, September +9.6, November 2020 -15.9, November 2019 +20.5. “Responses to this month’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region… Overall, the respondents continue to expect growth over the next six months.”

• Monday, November 22, 2021

• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago says the Preliminary October 2021 US National Activity Index is +0.76, September was at -0.18, August +0.05, October 2020 +1.08, October 2019 -0.41. “Index points to a pickup in economic growth in October.”
• The Natl Assn of Realtors says the Preliminary October 2021 US Existing Home Sales Annual Rate is at 6,340,000, September was at 6,290,000, August 5,880,000, October 2020 6,730,000, October 2019 5,410,000; October 2021 US Median Home Price is at $353,900, September was at $352,800, August $356,500, October 2020 $313,000, October 2019 $270,900. “Home sales remain resilient, despite low inventory and increasing affordability challenges … Inflationary pressures, such as fast-rising rents and increasing consumer prices, may have some prospective buyers seeking the protection of a fixed, consistent mortgage payment.”

US Government/Other News

• US President Biden nominates Jerome Powell to serve a second term as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve. He also nominates Lael Brainard to be Vice Chairman. The nominations go to the US Senate for confirmation, which is expected.
• US President Biden authorizes the release of 50 million barrels of oil from the US strategic oil reserves in hopes the action will lower gasoline prices.
• 2021 US COVID-19 so far exceeds the total for 2020. A new variant is discovered in South Africa and appears to be spreading throughout the globe. The US imposes travel restrictions from and to South Africa and seven other nations.
• In the US three men are convicted of the murder of Ahmaud Arbery, a 25-year-old Black man, chased by the white residents as he was jogging through a South Georgia neighborhood.
• On Thursday the US celebrated Thanksgiving Day. The following day is called Black Friday and recognized as the first day of Christmas shopping, with sales expected to reach new highs.

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The Week 46 of 2021 US Stock Market News Recap

The Stock Market Bull takes it on the chin on the DJIA, barely takes the S&P500, but closes with a record on the NASDAQ to take a 2-1 mixed win in Week 46 of 2021.

By Larry C. Paxton

The US Stock Market Week 46 Summary:

The Stock Market Bear tries to extend his win from Week 45, gets all three major US stock indices on Monday. But The Stock Market Bull counters by taking bigger wins on Tuesday. An angry The Stock Market Bear bounces back with even larger margins on Wednesday. The Stock Market Bull decided to focus most of his attention on the NASDAQ and S&P500, establishes records on both on Thursday, then again on the NASDAQ on Friday, but relinquishes a few points on the S&P500. Even though The Stock Market Bear gets 9 out of 15 trading sessions, The Stock Market Bull makes the most of his 6, earns a 2-1 mixed result for Week 46, clinches the Weekly Wins competition for the year, has already taken the Monthly Wins, and has a very large lead Year-To-Date. Enjoy and give thanks for the blessings in your life next Thursday when the US celebrates Thanksgiving Day.

Summary News Items for Week 46:

US Economic News

• Friday, November 19, 2021

• No economic news releases today.

• Thursday, November 18, 2021

• The Conference Board says the Preliminary October 2021 US Leading Economic Index(2016=100) is at 118.3, September was at 117.4, August 117.3, October 2020 108.5, October 2019 111.5. “The Conference Board forecasts growth to remain strong in the fourth quarter at around 5.0 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still historically robust rate of 2.6 percent in Q1 2022.”
• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia says the November 2021 US 3rd District Manufacturing General Activity Indicator is at +39.0, October was at +23.8, September +30.7, November 2020 +20.7, November 2019 +4.1. “The survey’s future indexes continue to suggest expected growth over the next six months.”

• Wednesday, November 17, 2021

• The US Dept of Commerce/HUD says the Preliminary October 2021 US Housing Building Permits Issued Annual Rate is at 1,650,000, September was at 1,586,000, August 1,721,000, October 2020 1,595,000, October 2019 1,503,000.

• Tuesday, November 16, 2021

• The US Dept of Labor says the Preliminary October 2021 US Change in Import Prices is at +1.2%, September was at +0.4%, August -0.2%, October 2020 -0.1%, October 2019 -0.4%, Last 12 Months +10.7%; Preliminary October 2021 US Change in Export Prices is at +1.5%, September was at +0.4%, August +0.3%, October 2020 +0.2%, October 2019 +0.0%, Last 12 Months +18.0%.
• The US Federal Reserve says the Preliminary October 2021 US Industrial Production Capacity of Utilization is at 76.4%, September was at 75.2%, August 76.2%, October 2020 73.2%, October 2019 77.0%.
• The US Dept of Commerce/Census says the Preliminary September 2021 Sales-Manufacturers is at $511.5 billion, Retailers $555.1 billion, Wholesalers $603.1 billion, making September 2021 Sales Total at $1,669.7 billion, August was at $1,655.2 billion, July $1,653.3 billion, September 2020 $1,445.6 billion, September 2019 $1,452.8 billion.
• The US Dept of Commerce/Census says the Advance October 2021 Retail Sales-Retailers is at $565.8 billion, Food Services & Drinking Places $72.4 billion, making October 2021 Retail Sales Total at $638.2 billion, September was at $627.5 billion, August $622.4 billion, October 2020 $548.7 billion, October 2019 $523.7 billion.
• The Natl Assn of Home Builders says the Preliminary November 2021 US Housing Market Composite Index is at 83, October was at 80, September 76, November 2020 90, November 2019 71. “Low existing inventories and strong buyer demand helped push builder confidence higher for the third consecutive month even as supply-side challenges — including building material bottlenecks and lot and labor shortages — remain stubbornly persistent.”

• Monday, November 15, 2021

• The US Federal Reserve Bank of New York says the November 2021 Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index is at +30.9, October was at +19.8, September +34.3, November 2020 +6.3, November 2019 +2.5. “… Firms planned significant increases in capital and technology spending. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, though optimism dipped.”

US Government/Other News

• US President Biden signs into law the $1 trillion infrastructure bill.
• On Friday the US House of Representatives approves a $2 trillion “Build Back Better” social spending bill, now goes to the US Senate where major changes are expected.
• US President Biden gets his annual physical, medical team pronounces him healthy and vigorous.
• US President Biden and Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping have a 3+ hour virtual summit meeting, Biden says, “… our responsibility as leaders of China and the United States is to ensure that the competition between our countries does not veer into conflict, whether intended or unintended …”
• US President Biden pardons Thanksgiving turkeys Peanut Butter and Jelly.
• The US Food and Drug Administration authorizes both Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 booster shots for all adults, the US Center for Disease Control Advisory Panel backs the decision.
• The controversial homicide trial of Kyle Rittenhouse, accused of killing 2 and wounding 1 at a chaotic event in Kenosha, WI, ends with Rittenhouse being acquitted on all charges, had pled self defense.
• The US Northwest is hit with torrential rains causing deadly floods and mudslides, significant infrastructure damage, displaces 18,000 people in the State of Washington.
• See above for weekly US economic news, which was generally positive.

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