The Week 4 of 2022 US Stock Market News Recap

In Week 4 of 2022 The Stock Market Bull finally gets his debut win, announces he is back after amazing comeback wins on Monday and Friday.

By Larry C. Paxton

The US Stock Market Week 4 Summary:

On Monday of Week 4 of 2022 The Stock Market Bear continued where he had left off on the previous Friday, with dramatic losses in all three indices. But there was a big U turn when The Stock Market Bull entered the pasture, and he ended up with the 3-0 win. On Tuesday The Stock Market Bear was in charge all day. On both Wednesday and Thursday The Stock Market Bull was in charge of the morning, but never seemed to return from lunch. The Stock Market Bear took over and prevailed on both of those days. But Friday The Stock Market Bull arrived in the morning, stayed all day, accelerating his lead in the last trading hour, takes the day, and, unbelievably, gets the outright 3-0 Week 4 Win by a very slim margin. Once again, opinions about the stock market are all over the place, so Week 5 should be an interesting one to watch, and maybe participate in as well!

Summary News Items for Week 4:

US Economic News

• Friday, January 28, 2022

• The US Dept of Commerce/BEA says the Preliminary December 2021 US Personal Income Annual Rate is at $20.987 trillion, November was at $20.916, October $20.809, December 2020 $19.562, December 2019 $18.801. “Personal income increased $70.7 billion (0.3 percent) in December… Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $39.9 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures(PCE) decreased $95.2 billion (0.6 percent).”
• The US Dept of Labor says the 4Q21 US Employment Cost Index(12/2005=100) for All Civilian Employees is at 148.1, 3Q21 was at 146.6, 2Q21 144.7, 4Q20 142.4, 4Q19 138.9. “Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2021… Wages and salaries increased 1.1 percent and benefit costs increased 0.9 percent from September 2021.”
• The U of Michigan Final January 2022 US Consumer Sentiment Index is at 67.2, December was at 70.6, November 67.4, January 2021 79.0, January 2020 99.8. “… Although their primary concern is rising inflation and falling real incomes (see the chart), consumers may misinterpret the Fed’s policy moves to slow the economy as part of the problem rather than part of the solution. The danger is that consumers may overreact to these tiny nudges, especially given the uncertainties about the coronavirus and other heightened geopolitical risks….”

• Thursday, January 27, 2022

• The US Dept of Commerce/BEA says the Advance 4Q21 US Real Gross Domestic Product Annual Rate for the Quarter is at +6.9%, $23.992 trillion, 3Q21 was at +2.3%, 2Q21 +6.7%, 4Q20 +4.5%, 4Q19 +1.9%. “The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).”
• The US Dept of Labor says for the Week Ending 01/22/22 US Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims is at 260,000, 12/25/21 was at 198,000, 11/20/21 199,000, 01/29/21 847,000, 01/25/20 212,000, 01/26/19 253,000.
• FreddieMac says the for the Week Ending 01/27/22 the US Weekly Average 30 Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate is at 3.55% with 0.7 points & fees, 12/30/21 was at 3.11%, 11/24/21 3.10%, 01/28/21 2.73%, 01/29/20 3.51%, 01/31/19 4.46%. “We do expect rates to continue to increase but at a more gradual pace. Therefore, a fair number of current homeowners could continue to benefit from refinancing to lower their mortgage payment.”
• TrueCar reports that the Preliminary January 2022 US Monthly Auto Sales Units-Retail is at 893,077, Fleet 113,248, making January 2022 US Monthly Auto Sales Units at 1,006,325, December was at 1,220,129, November 1,021,312, January 2021 1,109,578, January 2020 1,143,027; January 2022 Average Transaction Price is at $43,954, December $44,715, November $40,924, January 2021 $37,801, January 2020 $35,821. “Last month we saw industry sales decline 25% year-over-year, this month we are expecting sales to be down 9%. We’re cautiously optimistic due to the slight sales increase this month compared to the end of last year along with the small uptick in inventory, however the chip shortage will continue to affect the industry in 2022, …”

• Wednesday, January 26, 2022

• The US Federal Open Market Committee ends its 01/25-26/22 meeting, issues a statement saying, “Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months but are being affected by the recent sharp rise in COVID-19 cases. Job gains have been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses… Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March.”
• ADP says the 4Q21 US Average Wage Growth is at +4.4%, 3Q21 was at +3.3%, 2Q21 +2.3%, 4Q20 +4.4%, 4Q19 +3.1%. “… wage growth for Generation Z (24 years old and younger) job holders saw the largest wage gains in December 2021 at 13.1 percent.”
• The US Dept of Commerce/HUD says the Preliminary December 2021 US New Family Homes Sold Annual Rate is at 811,000, November was at 725,000, October 649,000, December 2020 943,000, December 2019 731,000; the December 2021 Median Home Sale Price is at $377,700, November was at $416,100, October $421,500, December 2020 $365,300, December 2019 $329,500.
• The US Energy Information Administration says on 01/24/22 the US Millions of Gallons of Crude Oil Stocks is at 416.2, 12/24/21 was at 420.0, 11/19/21 434.0, 01/24/20 431.7, 01/25/19 445.9.

• Tuesday, January 25, 2022

• The Conference Board says the Preliminary January 2022 Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100) is at 113.8, December was at 115.2, November 111.9, January 2021 88.9, January 2020 130.4. “Looking ahead, both confidence and consumer spending may continue to be challenged by rising prices and the ongoing pandemic.”
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Preliminary November 2021 US National Home Price Index(01/2000=100) is at 276.12, October was at 273.65, September 271.44, November 2020 232.41, November 2019 212.24; Last 12 Months +18.8%. “We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by a change in locational preferences as households react to the COVID pandemic. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years or reflects a more permanent secular change. In the short term, meanwhile, we should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.”
• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia says the Preliminary January 2022 3rd District Non-Manufacturing General Activity Index is at -16.2, December was at +27.3. “… Overall, the responding firms continue to expect growth over the next six months in their own firms and in the region.”
• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond says the Preliminary January 2022 5th District Manufacturing Index(Annualized) is at +8%, December was at +16%, November +11%, January 2021 +14%, January 2020 +20%. “Firms’ perceptions about changes in local business conditions remained slightly negative; however, firms are optimistic about future conditions.”
• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond says the Preliminary January 2022 5th District Service Sector Revenue Index(Annualized) is at +4%, December was at +12%, November +8%, January 2021 -3%, January 2020 +10%. “More firms reported deteriorating local business conditions this month than in December. However, firms are optimistic about future business conditions…”

• Monday, January 24, 2022

• The US Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago says the Preliminary December 2021 US National Activity Index is at -0.15, November was at +0.44, October +0.70, December 2020 +0.30, December 2019 -0.26. “Index suggests economic growth declined in December.”

US Government/Other News

• During the week the US COVID-19 related daily death toll reaches its highest level since last winter. The World Health Organization says new daily deaths record has been set globally. The US President Biden administration withdraws its emergency COVID-19 vaccine mandate for businesses and government per a Supreme Court decision saying it was unlawful.
• Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to increase as Russia approaches the Ukraine border with more troops, declares it is just an exercise, has no intention to invade. US President Biden says he might send some troops into nearby NATO countries.
• The US Federal Open Market Committee ends its first meeting of 2022, states it anticipates short term funds interest rates will increase soon, bonds purchases to come to an end as well, in an effort to slow down inflation.
• Liberal Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer announces that he will retire sometime this summer. US President Biden says he will keep his promise to nominate a black woman to replace Breyer, plans to do so by the end of February.
• N Korea continues to do some missile testing.

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