The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks April 2020 12 Month Report Card

The April 2020 ThePBR25 became ThePBR24, gets an ‘A’ for its 12 Month Report Card.

By Larry C. Paxton

Welcome to The April 2020 The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks 12 Month Report Card.

As investors we count on professional stock analysts to provide comprehensive and diligent research to come up with their best take on how stocks will perform over the next 12 months. We then use that information to help us make stock buy, hold and sell decisions.

The PBR25 Premise

The premise of The PBR25 is that there is a high probability of success for stock investing when a large enough number professional stock analysts through their extensive research determine that a stock is a “Buy” and also forecasts a significant return over the next 12 months. PBRMarketTools assigns a Report Card grade based on how the stock analysts did.

Last 12 Months Influences

Since April 2020 a lot has happened that was not predicted and not part of analyst estimates at that time:

• The COVID-19 Pandemic: It had become a reality, governments were trying to adjust, pharmaceuticals were developing and starting the testing process of potential vaccines. COVID-19 cases and deaths were accelerating. There were still a lot of unknowns, the future uncertain. Lockdowns were occurring, companies were closing or downsizing. Small businesses, especially restaurants and bars were trying to figure out what to do. Communications methods had changed dramatically with applications like Zoom being used by workers and family and friends. Toilet paper was still difficult to find. Amazon and other e-commerce businesses were ramping up their logistics capabilities. Jobs were still being lost. 12 months later much of the economy has recovered, COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for emergency use and are becoming plentiful. In most developed countries the cases and death rates are starting to drop, but is still a major issue in some countries like India and Brazil. The US has had 3 major rounds of stimulus checks for most people, but that has also increased national debt significantly. Economic policies are cautiously being implemented and monitored. Masking policies are starting to be lifted as more of the populations are vaccinated. There is a strong sense of optimism. The pandemic is no longer the headline news each day.
• In May 2020 George Floyd, a black man, died a very visible death with his neck under the knee of a policeman. Other similar types of incidents occurred as well. The response was a lot of  civil unrest. The policeman was convicted of all charges by a jury in April 2021, but racial inequality concerns are still very present.
• There was a very contentious 2020 US Presidential campaign that exacerbated how fractured the US is politically. New President Biden has been in office for a few months now, there seems to be a general sense of acceptance, and certainly the political environment has become a lot less volatile.

There is a lot more that can be said, but this is not meant to be an opinions post. It is a piece focused on the review of the recommendations stock analysts came up with at the end of March 2020 and the actual results 12 months later at the end of April 2021. PBRMarketTools is calling this a Report Card.

Creating The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks List for April 2020

The starting point is the prestigious The PBR1000, produced monthly by PBRMarketTools. To be included in The PBR1000 the 1,000 companies must meet the following criteria:

• The companies must be publicly traded on the NYSE, NYSE American or NASDAQ stock exchanges, with a very few temporarily trading on the Over-The-Counter market because they are transitioning from bankruptcy.
• They must be headquartered in the US or have primary operations in the US.
• They must have generated at least $1 billion in revenues in their most recent full fiscal year.
• They must file an annual 10-K form with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in US dollars
• Each of the 1,000 companies is given a primary ranking based on revenues, with the company having the highest revenue amount ranked 1(currently Walmart). There are 27 secondary rankings in The PBR1000 based on other criteria as well.

Each month the 12 month estimates and recommendations by stock analysts are updated on The PBR1000. The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks list for April 2020 was then created using the following process:

• At any point in time The PBR1000 has around 15,000 stock analyst recommendations.
• The PBR1000 was sorted by stock analyst recommendations.
• Those stocks rated a “Buy” were then further sorted by the number of “Buy” recommendations.
• For April 2020 a cut off of at least 12 “Buy” recommendations was then sorted by each stock’s weighted average, with a Buy being worth 5 points, Overweight 4 points, Hold 3 points, Underweight 2 points and Sell 1 point. The maximum weighted average is 5.00. For a stock to achieve a “Buy” recommendation its weighted average must be greater than 4.50.
• The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks list was finalized by doing a descending sort by the weighted averages.

Characteristics of The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks for April 2020

• The PBR25 data for April 2020 is from May 1, 2020
• Revenue rankings were from 2(Amazon) to 897(Parsley Energy, which was acquired in January, 2021. Magellan Midstream Partners was the next lowest, ranked at 778.)
• Market capitalization(company stock value) ranged from $3.53 billion(OneMain Holdings) to $1,349.54 billion(Microsoft). Total market capitalization for all The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks was $4,352.46 billion
• Weighted averages ranged from 4.65 to 5.00, the average was 4.74, on the 5.00 scale.
• 16 companies traded on the NYSE and 8 companies on NASDAQ
• 5 companies were energy related companies, 8 companies were technology related companies, 3 were financial services companies, 3 were retailers, 3 were healthcare related services, 1 was a food services company, 1 was a chemicals company, 1 was construction related.
• Per share stock prices on 05/01/20 ranged from $13.70 to $2,286.04. The total for all 24 of the 25 stocks used was $6,097.46.
• 12 month targeted stock prices ranged from $16.96 to $2,651.00. The total for all 24  stocks used was $7,083.07
• The total average forecasted 12 month change was +$985.61, for a percent change of +16.16%

Actual Results for The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks for March 2021

• The 12 months of data are from Friday, May 1, 2020, and Friday, April 30, 2021.
• One energy related company, Parsley Energy, was acquired in January, 2021. This analysis is based on the 24 remaining companies.
• Per share stock prices on 04/30/21 ranged from $20.08 to $3,467.42. The total for all 24 stocks used was $9,156.94.
• The 12 month actual difference was +$3,059.48, for a +50.18% change
• Actual 12 month change ranged from -4.97%(a healthcare services company) to +176.35%(an energy services related company), the median was +33.72%.
• 16 companies exceeded the forecasted 12 month average change, 8 companies did not
• 23 companies had a positive gain, only 1 company had a loss.
• 3 of the 8 companies that did not meet the forecast were energy related
• The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks achieved a +50.18% gain over the 12 months which compares favorably against the 3 major US stock indices which had the following results: DJIA +42.79%, NASDAQ +62.26%, S&P500 +47.71%.

Conclusions, Observations, Validations and Realities

• If you had bought 1 share each of The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks at the closing price on May 1, 2020, you would have achieved a +50.18% gain at the close on April 30, 2021, over three times the estimate and  an excellent return. For this reason, The April 2020 The PBR25 gets an ‘A’ on its 12 month Report Card.
• The stock analysts +33.72% median result was above the forecasted +16.16% 12 month target, but there was a very wide fluctuation on both sides of the median
• It is difficult to forecast out 12 months with any great accuracy, there are just too many variables and uncertainties, but it can be useful and helpful in providing some guidance
• It does demonstrate that The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks is a valid methodology and process for that particular month.
• Our demonstration account, called The Charlie Fund, uses the popular “Buy & Hold with Consistent Monthly Investment Strategy” with the monthly The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks as the primary research tool. It achieved a +46.62% return in 2020, a further validation of the methodology.
• There are no guarantees! The reality is that there will always be ups and downs in the stock market and people make stocks buy, hold and sell decisions based on a wide range logical and emotional criteria, input from knowledgeable hard-working experts and well meaning friends, and if the sky is blue today. But the historical data is pretty convincing that stocks will trend up at an above average investment rate over the long haul.

Additional Information

• The details of this summary, including company names and the over 200 fields of information for each company, were extracted from the updated The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks MS-Excel worksheet for March 2020, and has been distributed to The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks Subscribers for their personal use and further research
• The next 12 Month Report Card will be for April 2020, and should be available between mid to late May 2021.
• For characteristics of the most recent monthly The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks go to The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks information page.

We are always interested in your feedback, which you can provide on the Contact Us page.

PBRMarketTools.com provides The PBR1000, a compilation of 1,000 of the largest publicly held companies with primary operations in the US. These companies generate $15 trillion in annual revenues, more than all other US companies combined. The PBR1000 Monthly Snapshots provides these 1,000 companies in Excel format, includes 15 worksheets with 28 rankings, over 200 data/information points, hotlinks to key data, and important news items per company. The monthly The PBR25 Top Buy Stocks is a subset of the monthly The PBR1000 and is available as a separate monthly or annual subscription.

Disclaimers: The PBR1000 is compiled from a variety of publicly available resources. As such, PBRMarketTools.com is not responsible for the data itself. Any liability for the representations or decisions based on the data is solely the responsibility of the authorized user, not PBRMarketTools.com, its employees or affiliates. PBRMarketTools.com is an independent business intelligence service providing news, data, and analysis. It is not a financial advisory or stock brokerage firm and has no affiliation with such organizations. Any opinions expressed should not be regarded as advice.

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