February 2016: Which Direction Are The Markets Heading?
Stock Market and Commodities Prices…
Which Direction Will They Go
Short Term and Long Term?
By Larry C. Paxton
Throughout February 2016 the stock markets bounced up and down almost in synch with the price of oil. Annual corporate earnings reports continued to be mixed, also affected by oil industry companies. The markets also seemed to fluctuate on conjecture and mixed messages from Federal Reserve governors on how many and when interest rates will climb again.
In terms of volatility, out of the 20 trading days in February 2016, 11 of them were positive, 2 were less than -2%, compared to 5 in January, for the NASDAQ.
Both bulls and bears continue to make their case for the future, but the feeling is that there is really no overwhelming and convincing evidence one way or the other. However, I am sure there will be in hindsight down the road.
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In the following tables the stock price is for the close of trading on February 29th, Month % Chg is compared to December 31st, YTD % Chg is compared to January 30, 2015, and the 14 Mos % Chg is compared to December 31, 2014.
Table 1(S11): The PBR1000 Top 5 Month Stock Price % Gainers
Table 1 Summary: The range was +75.74% to -70.43%. 619 out of 1,030 stock prices were up 0.00% or more, or 60.10% of the companies tracked. The median was a gain of 1.65%.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 02/29/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
14 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groupon |
640 | GRPN | 4.78 | +75.74 | +55.70 | -42.13 |
| Titan International |
887 | TWI | 5.07 | +69.00 | +28.68 | -52.30 |
| Freeport McMoRan |
126 | FCX | 7.63 | +65.87 | +12.70 | -67.34 |
| Modine Manufacturing | 962 | MOD | 9.48 | +47.66 | +4.75 | -30.29 |
| NII Holdings |
588 | NIHD | 5.31 | +45.48 | +5.15 | n/a |
Table 2(S12): The PBR1000 Top 5 Year-To-Date Stock Price % Gainers
Table 2 Summary: The range was +212.50% to -83.97%. 383 out of 1,030 stock prices were up 0.00% or more, or 37.18% of the companies tracked. The median was a loss of 3.92%.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 02/29/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
14 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter Energy |
984 | WLTGQ | 0.04 | +12.90 | +212.50 | -97.46 |
| Groupon |
640 | GRPN | 4.78 | +75.74 | +55.70 | -42.13 |
| J.C. Penney |
232 | JCP | 10.20 | +40.50 | +53.15 | +57.41 |
| Newmont Mining |
354 | NEM | 25.83 | +29.41 | +43.58 | +36.67 |
| Alpha Natural Resources |
536 | ANRZQ | 0.02 | -3.18 | +38.18 | -99.09 |
Table 3(S13): The PBR1000 Top 5 13 Months Stock Price % Gainers
Table 3 Summary: Range was +117.95% to -99.09%. 340 out of 1,026 stock prices were up 0.00% or more, or 33.14% of the companies tracked. The median was a loss of -12.66%.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Price 02/29/15 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
14 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A-Mark Precious Metals |
410 | AMRK | 21.73 | +28.35 | +15.28 | +117.95 |
| Netflix |
438 | NFLX | 93.41 | +1.71 | -18.33 | +91.41 |
| Skechers |
527 | SKX | 32.92 | +16.58 | +8.97 | +78.72 |
| Amazon.com |
31 | AMZN | 552.52 | -5.87 | -18.25 | +78.03 |
| Heartland Payment Systems |
401 | HPY | 93.52 | +1.56 | -1.37 | +73.35 |
Table 4(S15): The PBR1000 Top 5 Market Capitalization
Table 4 Summary: Range was $536.11 billion to $0.00 billion. The average is $18.56 billion, median is $5.71 billion, out of 1,030 companies tracked.
| Company | PBR Rank |
Symbol | Market Cap($B) 02/29/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
14 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple |
3 | AAPL | 536.11 | -1.21 | -8.65 | -17.19 |
| Alphabet |
44 | GOOGL | 480.29 | -6.00 | -7.97 | +34.50 |
| Microsoft |
27 | MSFT | 402.43 | -8.55 | -9.19 | +5.10 |
| ExxonMobil |
2 | XOM | 333.10 | +2.78 | +2.65 | -14.92 |
| Berkshire Hathaway |
5 | BRK.A | 331.57 | +6.95 | +1.87 | -8.30 |
| The PBR1000 |
19,119.29 | -0.54 | -5.74 | -7.73 |
Table 5: The PBR1000 Index & Selected Stock Exchanges/Commodities
| Company | Price 02/29/16 |
Mo % Chg |
YTD % Chg |
14 Mos % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The PBR1000 | 64,933.39 | -0.28 | -6.05 | -7.47 |
| DJIA | 16,516.50 | +0.30 | -5.21 | -7.33 |
| NASDAQ | 4,557.95 | -1.21 | -8.98 | -3.76 |
| S&P500 | 1,932.23 | -0.41 | -5.47 | -6.15 |
| Gold | 1,244.80 | +11.30 | +17.41 | +5.06 |
| Silver | 14.94 | +4.77 | +8.26 | -4.23 |
| Oil | 33.76 | +0.06 | -8.86 | -36.62 |
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